国泰君安期货能源化工：甲醇周度报告-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market showed a volatile rebound this week. In the short - term, it is expected to continue the volatile rebound trend, with the 01 contract having an upper pressure range of 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 inter - period positive spread has peaked, and it is expected to enter a reverse spread pattern in the medium - term. The spread between MA and PP is in a volatile pattern [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - The report presents historical data charts of methanol's basis, monthly spreads (1 - 5, 5 - 9), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials from 2020 to 2025 [8][11][16]. 3.2 Supply - New Capacity: From 2024 - 2025, China added multiple methanol production facilities, with a total capacity expansion of 4000000 tons in 2024 and 8300000 tons in 2025. Overseas, there were also new production plans, with a total international capacity expansion of 3550000 tons in 2024 and 1650000 tons in 2025 [24]. - Maintenance: Multiple enterprises carried out maintenance from October to November 2025, resulting in different levels of production losses [27]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: In the week of 20251205 - 1211, China's methanol production was 2039705 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2055400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 90.50% [4]. - Production by Process: The report shows historical production data of methanol produced by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal co - alcohol, natural gas) in China from 2018 to 2025 [30]. - Capacity Utilization by Region: It presents historical capacity utilization data of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, Central) in China from 2018 to 2025 [33]. - Import - related: It shows historical data of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 to 2025 [37]. - Cost and Profit: It shows historical data of methanol production costs and profits of different production methods (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, natural gas - based) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [42]. 3.3 Demand - Downstream Capacity Utilization: It shows historical capacity utilization data of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE) from 2020 to 2025 [52]. - Downstream Profit: It shows historical profit data of methanol downstream industries (MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [59]. - Procurement Volume: It shows historical procurement volume data of MTO production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [67]. - Raw Material Inventory: It shows historical inventory data of methanol raw materials in downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [77]. 3.4 Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows historical data of methanol factory inventories in China, East China, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia from 2018 to 2025 [82]. - Port Inventory: It shows historical data of methanol port inventories in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 to 2025 [88].