策略周报：聚焦AI算力和商业航天双主线-20251214

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the initiation of a "spring surge" market, led by technology sectors, particularly focusing on AI computing power and commercial aerospace as dual main lines for investment opportunities [3][13][37] - The transition from a policy-driven market to one driven by fundamental earnings growth is highlighted, with expectations of a stable macroeconomic environment supporting this shift [13][22] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing, while traditional sectors like real estate and energy remain under pressure [22][37] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion have positively impacted global risk assets, creating a favorable environment for A-shares to remain in an upward trajectory [12][13] - The Central Economic Work Conference has set priorities for 2026, emphasizing domestic demand and technological development, which are expected to bolster market confidence [12][13] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware, is noted for its resilience and growth potential, with specific attention to the TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) supply chain and related components like optical modules and storage chips [27][31][32] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a significant policy boost, with the establishment of a dedicated commercial aerospace department and supportive government actions expected to enhance market confidence and growth prospects [37] Market Trends - Recent market movements show a preference for growth-oriented sectors, with notable gains in communications and electronics, while traditional sectors face declines [22][34] - The report indicates a strong inflow of funds into electronic and communication sectors, reflecting investor confidence in these areas [34][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the TPU industry chain, particularly in light of anticipated shortages in optical communication chips and the expected price increases in 2026 [28][31][32] - Key stocks in the TPU supply chain have shown significant price increases, indicating strong market performance and potential for further growth [32]