宏观周度述评系列：从宏观视角看入境消费-20251214

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In the second week of December, U.S. stocks and bonds priced in a rate cut, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.19%[4] - The actual GDP growth for December is projected at 4.28%, with nominal GDP at 3.93%[4] - The actual and nominal GDP for the entire year are estimated at 4.98% and 3.95%, respectively[4] Group 2: Inbound Consumption Insights - Inbound tourism in 2024 saw 131.9 million visitors, a 60.8% increase, with total spending reaching $94.2 billion, up 77.8%[9] - Inbound consumption accounted for approximately 0.5% of GDP in 2024, with potential growth to 1.5% representing a market increase of around 2 trillion yuan[9] - The number of tax refund stores exceeded 10,000, with sales of tax refund goods increasing by 97.5% in the first eight months of 2025[9] Group 3: Policy and Structural Developments - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the cultivation of international consumption centers and the enhancement of inbound tourism convenience[10] - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to optimize the inbound consumption environment and promote the "Shop in China" brand[10] - Policies are being implemented to improve tourism infrastructure and public services to support high-quality tourism development[10]