负债行为跟踪：年末抢跑，布局科技

Group 1: Report Summary - Forecasted incremental funds in 2026 from insurance, wealth management, and pensions amount to 3.1 trillion. End - of - year pre - positioning in technology is likely [4]. - This week, risk appetite rebounded, with the VIX index falling and the basis of near - month stock index futures contracts narrowing significantly. The A - share market showed a structural trend, with the technology sector leading the rise [4]. - End - of - year pre - positioning is occurring. Margin trading funds have been flowing back to technology for two weeks, and this week, southbound funds shifted from a hedging and balanced strategy to flowing into electronics [4]. Group 2: Asset Price Performance 2.1. Performance of Major Asset Classes - This week (2025/12/8 - 2025/12/12), US stocks rose, while A - shares and Hong Kong stocks fell. Technology stocks performed well, with the US Nasdaq, A - share ChiNext, and STAR 50 all rising. The bond market showed a differentiated performance, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6% [13]. 2.2. A - share Market - Among broad - based indices, micro - cap and dividend indices declined significantly, while the ChiNext and STAR 50 performed well. The ChiNext rose 2.7% and the STAR 50 rose 1.7% this week [19]. - Except for micro - cap stocks, the average daily trading volume of most broad - based indices increased, returning to the level of mid - August [23]. - The top five rising industries this week were communication (7.6%), national defense and military industry (5.1%), non - banking finance (4.3%), machinery and equipment (3.8%), and electronics (3.1%), with technology stocks leading the gains. Cyclical value stocks such as coal, oil and petrochemicals, real estate, and banks performed relatively poorly [29]. 2.3. Technology Sector - In October, the technology sector contracted significantly. In November, optical modules and optical communication rebounded. In the first two weeks of December, optical modules, optical communication, computing power, semiconductor equipment, and controllable nuclear fusion had excess returns [33]. - This week, the technology sector as a whole performed well. On Monday and Friday, most sub - sectors rose, and on Thursday, most sub - sectors fell, but it did not affect the overall upward trend [37]. Group 3: Fund Behavior Tracking 3.1. Margin Trading Funds - As of Thursday this week, the proportion of margin trading turnover in A - share turnover rebounded from 10.01% to 10.53%. The margin trading balance was approximately 2.51 trillion, and the proportion of margin trading balance to A - share free - float market capitalization was about 2.63% [48]. - From Monday to Thursday, margin trading funds continued to flow into major broad - based indices, while most broad - based ETF funds had net outflows, except for the STAR 50 and the Shanghai Composite Index, which had net inflows [53]. - This week, stocks with a market capitalization of over 3 billion added leverage. In stocks with a market capitalization of over 500 billion, industrial and commercial stocks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Ping An of China, and Zhongji Innolight had large net margin purchases [57]. - Industries with a large proportion of net margin purchases to trading volume this week were banking, commerce and retail, coal, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and real estate. Non - banking finance added leverage this week after five consecutive weeks of de - leveraging [59]. - Some popular stocks in electronics, machinery, and non - ferrous metals added leverage this week. The average ratio of net margin purchases to trading volume of the top 35 popular stocks rose to 3.00% this week [71]. 3.2. Quantitative Funds - In the past two weeks (12/1 - 12/12), the excess returns of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index enhancement strategies were - 0.5% and - 0.2% respectively [73]. 3.3. Stock Index Futures - This week, the basis of near - month stock index futures contracts narrowed significantly, but the basis of far - month contracts remained at a relatively high level since July. The number of "this month" contracts decreased, while the number of "next month", "current quarter", and "next quarter" contracts increased [83]. 3.4. Main Funds - Main funds in the CSI 300 and ChiNext and STAR markets continued to have net outflows, and the net outflows accelerated. Main funds in the CSI 300 and ChiNext had significant net outflows on Thursday, and main funds in the STAR market had net outflows for five consecutive days, with a large outflow on Friday [88]. - Main funds flowed into banking and steel industries and flowed out of electronics, computer, and communication industries [92]. 3.5. Northbound Funds - This week, the total trading volume of northbound funds rebounded, with the average daily trading volume rising from 192.7 billion to 232.5 billion, and the proportion in A - share trading volume rising from 11.34% to 11.85% [94]. - This week, the decline of heavy - position stocks in the Hong Kong - connected Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect widened, and the median of the rise - fall ratio widened from - 0.39% to - 1.47%. The Hong Kong - connected Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect 50 index failed to outperform the CSI 300 this week [101]. 3.6. Southbound Funds - This week, the average daily trading volume of southbound funds rose from 138 billion to 158.3 billion, and the proportion rose from 51.2% to 54.9%. The average daily net purchase amount decreased from 2.1 billion to - 0.6 billion [103]. - Southbound funds continued to flow into industries such as electronics, automobiles, and banking, but the single - week net inflow scale of the banking industry decreased significantly compared to November. Commerce and retail shifted from continuous net inflows to net outflows [109].