铜行业周报（20251208-20251212）：美国COMEX交易所电解铜库存续创历史新高-20251214

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to a positive outlook for copper prices. As of December 12, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 94,080 RMB/ton, up 1.40% from December 5, while LME copper closed at 11,553 USD/ton, down 0.96% [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics remain tight, with expectations for continued upward movement in copper prices due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and down 12.1% year-on-year. The TC spot price as of December 12, 2025, was -43.33 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 USD/ton from December 5, 2025 [3][60]. - Demand: The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a slight decrease in operating rates to 66.31%, down 0.81 percentage points week-on-week. Air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 22% in December 2025, but improve by 14% in January 2026 [3][91]. Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 0.8%. As of December 12, 2025, COMEX copper inventory reached a historical high of 451,000 tons, up 3.2% from December 5, 2025 [2][26]. Futures Market Summary - The active SHFE copper contract saw a significant decrease in open interest, down 18% to 189,000 lots as of December 12, 2025, which is at the 52nd percentile since 1995 [4][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing positions in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also monitoring Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].