周观点：美国AI泡沫风险可能与全球美元债务风险同步释放-20251214

Investment Insights - The ongoing competition in computing power chips between China and the US is a significant indicator of long-term global technological deflation [2] - The potential collapse of the US AI bubble could lead to a simultaneous release of global dollar debt risks [2] - Attention should be paid to the risk signals indicated by a potential temporary strengthening of the dollar, which may subsequently lead to a triple hit on the dollar, US bonds, and US stocks [2] - The Chinese market is expected to undergo a long-term style shift during the release of overseas risks, accompanied by a significant and sustained appreciation of the Renminbi [2] Sector and Company Focus - Long-term optimism is noted for sectors such as insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution industries, Chinese internet companies, and military trade [3] - The recent FOMC meeting indicated a shift to a neutral stance, with the Fed no longer pre-setting a path for interest rate cuts, which will depend on future economic data [8][9] - The Fed acknowledged a cooling labor market, with potential negative employment growth, which explains the decision to cut rates despite inflation remaining above target [9] - The report highlights a complex economic scenario characterized by high growth and weak employment, partly attributed to increased productivity [9] Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.42% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.29% [13] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.74%, indicating a rebound in growth stocks [20] - Sector performance showed a clear divergence, with technology and advanced manufacturing leading gains, while cyclical, consumer, and healthcare sectors experienced declines [27]