11月金融数据点评:企业与居民融资分化,M1增速继续下行
CICC·2025-12-14 10:22

Financial Overview - In November, the total social financing (社融) stock growth rate remained at 8.5%, unchanged from October, but is expected to decline slightly by year-end[2] - The M2 growth rate in November was 8.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth rate fell to 4.9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points[2] - The net financing for the government sector in November was 1.20 trillion yuan, while the net financing for the household sector was -205.8 billion yuan, indicating a decrease for both sectors[2] Corporate Financing - Corporate sector net financing in November was 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 584.9 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by short-term loans and bill financing[2] - Corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan in November, up 178.8 billion yuan from the previous year, reflecting a recovery in bond market sentiment[3] M1 Trends - The M1 growth rate has shown significant weakness, with a November year-on-year decline attributed to both high base effects and weaker month-on-month trends[3] - The month-on-month M1 growth rate for November was 0.8%, the second lowest level for the same month since 2020, with seasonal adjustments potentially indicating a negative growth[3] Real Estate Market Insights - The real estate market showed slight recovery with the real estate sentiment index rising to 95.1 from 94.9, although new home sales compared to 2019 saw a widening decline of 57.3%[4] - The net financing for real estate companies turned positive at 3.2 billion yuan, indicating a marginal improvement in credit conditions for the sector[5]