多晶硅：预计盘面高位震荡态势：工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon continues to accumulate inventory, with short - term supply disruptions. The supply in the northwest will gradually resume production, but the overall supply will still decline from December. The demand side remains in a state of weak rigid demand, and the fundamentals are in a state of both supply and demand weakness, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short industrial silicon on rallies, with the expected trading range of the next - week's industrial silicon futures at 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton [5]. - The polysilicon futures price fluctuates at a high level. The supply and demand are both weak. The platform company's plan to compress total production capacity gives the market an expectation of supply reduction, while the terminal demand is weak, resulting in a decline in production scheduling in December. The establishment of the platform company boosts market confidence. It is expected that the next - week's polysilicon futures will trade in the range of 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [5]. - For cross - period trading, no recommendations are provided; for hedging, it is recommended that upstream industrial silicon plants and polysilicon plants conduct short hedging [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures price first fell and then rose, with the overall center of gravity moving down, and the spot price declined. On Friday, the futures closed at 8,435 yuan/ton. The SMM - reported price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 - grade silicon was 8,850 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan) [1]. - Polysilicon: The futures price opened low and closed high, with the center of gravity rising. On Friday, the futures closed at 57,190 yuan/ton. The upstream spot price remained firm [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory continued to accumulate. The production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia increased, but the production in the southwest decreased due to the dry season. The cost in the southwest during the dry season is estimated to be 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton. The overall production from November to December decreased month - on - month. This week, the social inventory increased by 0.3 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.45 tons, and the overall industry inventory increased by 0.75 tons [2]. - Demand side: The downstream rigid demand is weak. In the polysilicon sector, the weekly production scheduling decreased; in the organic silicon sector, the weekly production decreased, and many organic silicon monomer plants reduced their production loads. The aluminum alloy sector has a reasonable inventory of industrial silicon, with high procurement enthusiasm at low prices and a wait - and - see attitude at other times. The export volume in the fourth quarter decreased significantly [2]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly production decreased month - on - month. In December, some polysilicon manufacturers reduced production, while some others resumed production, so the overall monthly production did not decrease significantly. The November production was 114,600 tons, and the estimated December production is 113,500 tons. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers increased this week, reaching 290,000 tons [3]. - Demand side: The weekly production scheduling of silicon wafers increased month - on - month. The silicon wafer price stabilized after a decline in December, and the production scheduling decreased month - on - month due to the decline in terminal demand. The silicon wafer inventory is at a relatively reasonable level [3]. 3.3 Market Data - The report provides the reference prices of industrial silicon in mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices in three major ports/warehouses from November 24 to December 12, 2025 [7]. - The report also includes multiple charts showing the inventory, production, price, and other data of industrial silicon, polysilicon, DMC, and regenerated aluminum, as well as the relevant data of single - crystal silicon wafer exports, domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity, and domestic automobile monthly sales [9][10][20][23][24]