国债期货周报-20251214

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - end of the treasury bond futures market recovered this week, while the ultra - long end had a slight correction. The TL contract closed down on Friday after recovering on Wednesday and Thursday. The yield curve flattened. - The tone of monetary policy remains unchanged after the Central Economic Work Conference. It will still support the real economy and consumption and boost inflation in the future, possibly using both structural and aggregate tools. Although there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, their impact on the bond market may be limited. - In the medium term, due to the relatively restrained monetary policy of the central bank, the change in inflation expectations, the orientation of medium - and long - term capital inflows, and the inability to falsify the 14th Five - Year Plan policy expectations, the overall view is that the market will fluctuate with a slightly bearish trend [1]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The short - end of the treasury bond futures market recovered, and the ultra - long end had a slight correction. The TL contract closed down on Friday after recovering on Wednesday and Thursday, and the yield curve flattened. - The Central Economic Work Conference further clarified the direction and tasks of next year's economic work. Traditional growth - stabilizing areas released many growth - stabilizing signals, exceeding market expectations. It mentioned "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and required "maintaining ample liquidity", which is positive for macro - assets in terms of liquidity. - Fiscal policy requires "maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure". It is expected that the deficit ratio will remain stable next year, and the total deficit scale will continue to expand moderately, which will positively guide the market's total demand expectations. - The long - end of the treasury bond futures market led the rise, and the short - end followed. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds has risen to a nearly two - year high, indicating the value of the ultra - long end. The logic of asset shortage, the easing of deflation pressure, and the loose tone of monetary policy provide medium - and long - term bottom support for the bond market, but attention should be paid to the impact of equity market fluctuations and policy implementation rhythm on the long - end [4][6]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content is provided in the given text, only a figure title is mentioned [8]. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change of net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 0.67%; foreign capital decreased by 0.61%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 1.44%. - In terms of the weekly change: private funds decreased by 1.91%; foreign capital increased by 1.9%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 1.11% [10].