商品期权周报：2025年第50周-20251214

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of the commodity options market increased slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 8.25 million lots and an average daily open interest of 9.98 million lots, showing a week-on-week change of +3.95% and -11.29% respectively. Attention should be paid to potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][9]. - This week, most commodity options' implied volatility increased on a weekly basis. For varieties with high implied volatility, single - sided risks should be guarded against, and opportunities to short volatility can be considered; for those with low implied volatility, buying options is more cost - effective [2][18]. - Different varieties show different market sentiment in terms of trading volume PCR and open interest PCR, indicating concentrated expectations of either rising or falling [3][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8.25 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.98 million lots, with week - on - week changes of +3.95% and -11.29% respectively [1][9]. - The most actively traded varieties this week included glass (830,000 lots), silver (790,000 lots), and methanol (470,000 lots). The varieties with significant trading volume growth were soybeans No. 2 (+256%), LPG (+191%), and ethylene glycol (+123%); those with significant decline were polysilicon (-72%) and lithium carbonate (-70%) [1][9]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest this week were glass (920,000 lots), soybean meal (850,000 lots), and soda ash (770,000 lots). The varieties with rapid week - on - week growth in open interest were lead (+56%) and p - xylene (+53%) [1][9]. 2. This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review 2.1. Underlying Price Changes - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options declined. The varieties with high weekly gains were silver (+8.80%), polysilicon (+7.60%), and lithium carbonate (+6.03%); those with high losses were glass (-5.94%), industrial silicon (-5.20%), and LPG (-4.85%) [2][18]. 2.2. Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 27 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50th percentile of the past year. The implied volatility of PVC, LPG, and silver increased by 8.46, 6.24, and 4.01 percentage points respectively. Varieties with high implied volatility included silver, PVC, polypropylene, etc.; those with low implied volatility included urea, rapeseed meal, etc. [2][18]. 2.3. Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of cotton, plastic, LPG, etc. was at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated expectation of price decline; the trading volume PCR of aluminum, zinc, gold, etc. was at a one - year low, showing a concentrated expectation of price increase. The open interest PCR of iron ore, soybean meal, etc. was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulation of bearish sentiment; the open interest PCR of rapeseed oil, plastic, etc. was at a one - year low, suggesting an accumulation of bullish sentiment [3][19]. 3. Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23]. 3.1. Energy No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. 3.2. Chemical Industry - PTA: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - Caustic Soda: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - Glass: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - Soda Ash: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. 3.3. Precious Metals No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. 3.4. Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - Silicomanganese: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. 3.5. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - Aluminum: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. 3.6. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - Palm Oil: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references. - Cotton: No specific data and analysis content provided other than chart references.