Report Date - The report is dated December 14, 2025 [1] Core View - In the coming week (December 15 - 19), both the Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures prices are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, the current decline in US soybean prices calls for attention to China's purchasing situation. If China makes purchases at lower prices, the downside of US soybean prices is expected to be limited. In the domestic market, prices are slightly stronger due to concerns about customs clearance. For soybeans, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures market is influenced by market news and sentiment, likely to fluctuate within a range [6] International Soybean Market (December 8 - 12) Price Trends - US soybean futures prices mainly declined. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of December 12, the main January 2026 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 2.62%, and the main January 2026 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 1.76% [2] Fundamental Factors - China continued to purchase US soybeans, but the volume was lower than market expectations. From December 8 - 12, the total volume of US soybeans sold to China and unknown destinations was about 1.221 million tons (for the 2025/26 crop year) [2] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 12, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased week - on - week, while the average import cost decreased due to the decline in the US soybean futures market [2] - Brazilian soybean planting was nearly complete. As of the week of December 4, the planting progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 94%, slightly lower than about 95% in the same period last year [2] - Argentina's soybean planting progress was slow. As of the week of December 11, the planting progress of the 2025/26 Argentine soybeans was about 58%, compared with about 66% in the same period last year [2] - The weather forecast for South American soybean - producing regions indicated that in the next two weeks (December 13 - 27), there would be more precipitation and lower temperatures in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil, while precipitation and temperatures in Argentina would be basically normal [2] Domestic Soybean Meal Market (December 8 - 12) Futures Prices - Domestic soybean meal futures prices first declined and then rose. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of December 12, the main m2605 contract of soybean meal had a weekly decline of 1.81% [2] Spot Market - Trading volume increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 12, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was about 180,000 tons, compared with about 140,000 tons in the previous week [3] - Delivery volume increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 12, the average daily delivery volume of soybean meal at major oil mills was about 195,000 tons, compared with about 184,000 tons in the previous week [4] - Basis increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 12, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 293 yuan/ton, compared with about 226 yuan/ton in the previous week [4] - Inventory decreased slightly week - on - week but increased year - on - year. As of the week of December 5, the inventory of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was about 1.05 million tons, with a week - on - week decline of about 2% and a year - on - year increase of about 75% [4] - Soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and was expected to be stable in the coming week. As of the week of December 12, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 2.04 million tons, and the operating rate was about 56%. In the coming week (December 13 - 19), the expected crushing volume was about 2.04 million tons, and the operating rate was 56% [4] Domestic Soybean Market (December 8 - 12) Futures Prices - Domestic soybean futures prices were relatively strong. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of December 12, the main a2601 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 1.55% [2] Spot Market - Soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,840 - 4,160 yuan/ton, up 20 - 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. In some parts of Inner China, the purchase price remained flat, and in the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans also remained unchanged [5] - State reserve purchases continued without new storage points. The ongoing state reserve purchases in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia supported the soybean prices in the Northeast [5] - The purchase price in the Northeast production area continued to rise. Due to farmers' reluctance to sell, the volume of purchases was slow. Most traders reported slow sales in the market and mainly executed previous contracts [5] - The trading of Northeast soybeans in the sales areas was slow. Dealers in many places reported normal but slow trading of Northeast soybeans. Downstream markets had inventories that needed time to consume, and slow trading of terminal soy products restricted the operating rate of soybean product factories and raw soybean purchases [5]
豆一：区间运行，豆粕：低位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-14 11:13