债市微观结构跟踪：货币宽松预期略有上升

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The reading of the bond market's micro - trading thermometer this period has rebounded to 43%, up 6 percentage points from the previous period [15]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remains at 15%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of over - heated indicators has decreased to 3 (15%), the number in the neutral range has increased to 7 (35%), and the number in the cold range has decreased to 10 (50%) [20]. - The average percentile of various types of indicators has increased, but the overall average percentile of all indicators has decreased by 9 percentage points to 37% [20][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading rebounds to 43% - The TL/T long - short ratio, 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio, and the percentile of the expected monetary tightness and looseness have increased by 55, 19, and 11 percentage points respectively. Most other indicators have slightly rebounded. Only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio, fund duration, allocation disk strength, listed company wealth management purchase volume, and the percentile of the commodity price ratio indicator have slightly declined [3][15]. - Currently, indicators with high congestion include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio, 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio, and institutional leverage [15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remains at 15% 3.2.1. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio increases - In trading heat indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators remains at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range rises to 33%, and the proportion in the cold range drops to 17%. The TL/T long - short ratio percentile rebounds significantly by 55 percentage points to 69%, rising from the cold to the neutral range. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio, full - market turnover ratio, and institutional leverage percentile increase by 19, 2, and 7 percentage points respectively [21]. - Specifically, the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio slightly drops to 4.10, with its past - year percentile decreasing by 3 percentage points to 97%, still in the over - heated range. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio rises to 0.97, with its past - year percentile rising by 19 percentage points to 98% [23][24]. 3.2.2. The expectation of monetary easing slightly increases - In institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of over - heated indicators drops to 0%, the proportion in the neutral range rises to 38%, and the proportion in the cold range drops to 63%. The percentile of the expected monetary tightness and looseness increases by 11 percentage points, rising from the cold to the neutral range. The percentiles of the fund - rural commercial bank purchase volume and fund divergence increase by 20 percentage points, while the percentiles of other indicators slightly decline [29]. - Specifically, the TL/T long - short ratio rises to 0.99, with its past - year percentile rising by 55 percentage points to 69%, moving from the cold to the neutral range. The full - market turnover ratio rebounds to 16.85%, with its past - year percentile rising by 2 percentage points to 8%. The institutional leverage rises to 88.62%, with its past - year percentile rising by 7 percentage points to 96%. The long - term Treasury bond trading volume ratio drops to 65.89%, with its past - year percentile decreasing by 18 percentage points to 55%. The fund duration remains at 2.88, with its past - year percentile dropping by 2 percentage points to 16%. The fund divergence remains at 0.56, with its past - year percentile rising by 2 percentage points to 37%. The bond fund profit - taking pressure drops to 17.08%, with its past - year percentile dropping by 46 percentage points to 27%, moving from the over - heated to the cold range. The expected monetary tightness and looseness index remains at 0.93, with its past - year percentile rising by 11 percentage points to 44%, moving from the cold to the neutral range. The allocation disk strength drops to 0.09%, with its past - year percentile dropping by 4 percentage points to 53%. The listed company wealth management purchase volume drops to 30.1 billion, with its past - year percentile dropping by 2 percentage points to 10% [29][30]. 3.2.3. The percentiles of policy and market interest rate spreads both rebound by 2 percentage points - The policy interest rate spread remains at 2bp, with its percentile slightly rising by 2 percentage points to 57%, still in the neutral range. The credit spread and IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread narrow by 3bp and 1bp to 57bp and 0bp respectively, the agricultural development - state development bank spread remains at 1bp, and the average spread of the three narrows by 1bp to 19bp, with its percentile rebounding by 2 percentage points to 52%, still in the neutral range [33]. 3.2.4. The percentile of the real - estate price ratio rises by 6 percentage points - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range remains at 100%. The percentile of the commodity price ratio drops by 5 percentage points to 22%, and the percentile of the real - estate price ratio rises by 6 percentage points to 6%, while the percentiles of other indicators change little [36]. - Specifically, the market interest rate spread's percentile rebounds to 52%, still in the neutral range. The policy interest rate spread's percentile rises to 57%, still in the neutral range. The stock - bond price ratio drops to - 22.5%, with its past - year percentile remaining at 0%. The commodity price ratio drops to - 40.6%, with its past - year percentile dropping by 5 percentage points to 22%. The real - estate price ratio rebounds to - 81.6%, with its past - year percentile rising by 6 percentage points to 6%. The consumer goods price ratio remains at - 81.8%, with its past - year percentile remaining at 0% [36][37][39].