国泰君安期货·能源化工：聚烯烃周报-20251214

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on polyolefins by Guotai Junan Futures, covering the plastic and polypropylene sectors, including price, supply, demand, and inventory analysis [1][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints Plastic - The price of plastic is under pressure due to the expected increase in supply and decrease in demand at the end of the year, with a recommended strategy of shorting on rebounds [5] Polypropylene - The price of polypropylene is also under pressure in the off - season, with a recommended strategy of shorting on rebounds [94][96] 3. Summary by Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - Domestic and foreign prices of PE have generally declined, with the Chinese CIF price down by $5 - 10. The import window has compressed, and the LD import profit is at a relatively high level this year [9][19] - The production profit of PE has been compressed, with the profit of ethylene procurement significantly reduced recently, while the profits of MTO, coal - based, and naphtha - based production have slightly improved [40] Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%, and the domestic production growth rate is 18%. Although the import has declined year - on - year, the supply is still loose. The subsequent maintenance scale is expected to decline, and the supply is expected to increase in December [5] Demand & Inventory - The demand for PE is weak. The agricultural film start - up rate has continued to decline, and the demand from other downstream industries is also expected to decrease slightly. The inventory removal is not smooth, with the upstream inventory accumulating slightly and the social inventory decreasing slightly [5] Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The domestic and foreign prices of PP have declined. The CIF price in China has rebounded and then declined. The import window is approaching closure [100][110] - The overall profit of PP production has been compressed, with the PDH and propylene - based production valuations being the most significantly compressed, while the coal - based process profit has slightly improved [130] Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 12.7%, and the estimated annual production growth rate is 16.7%. The end - of - year planned maintenance volume is declining, and the supply center is high. The subsequent maintenance scale is expected to decline, and the supply is expected to increase [94] Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up of PP is temporarily stable, but the orders of some industries are seasonally weakening. The inventory removal is not smooth, and the inventory is higher than the same period last year [95][96]