宏观与大类资产周报：还需一点催化剂-20251214

Domestic Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference have outlined the economic structure direction for the coming year, focusing on stimulating service consumption, enhancing total factor productivity, and managing real estate and local debt risks[6]. - November CPI showed a significant year-on-year increase, expected to rise to around 1.2% in December, while PPI is projected to be around -2.0%[6]. International Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December and plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term bonds over the next 30 days, with a lower probability of further rate cuts in Q1 2026[18]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates on December 19, which could impact global equity markets, particularly the S&P 500, which has historically reacted negatively to Japanese rate hikes[18]. Asset Market Insights - The domestic asset market may see a gradual improvement, with a focus on technology and innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong after mid-January 2026[19]. - The offshore RMB has appreciated due to the Fed's rate cut, seasonal currency settlement, and easing US-China trade tensions, but the overall macroeconomic situation will determine if this leads to a stronger performance in Hong Kong and A-shares[19]. Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices rose by 0.84% and 2.74%, respectively[38]. - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.42%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a historical high, reflecting varied performances across global markets[38].