Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver have shown strong upward momentum, with London spot gold rising by 3.72% to $4346.95 per ounce and London spot silver increasing by 19.66% to $64.51 per ounce in the past two weeks [6][11] - The main drivers for the recent price increases include the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and initiate a short-term bond purchase program, slow progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, and the Bank of Japan signaling a shift towards interest rate hikes [6][7] - The global demand for gold is projected to reach 4974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 2023, driven by strong purchases from central banks and rising investment demand [7] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In the last two weeks, London spot gold increased by 3.72% to $4346.95 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold price rose by 1.75% to 970.66 yuan per gram. London spot silver surged by 19.66% to $64.51 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price increased by 17.01% to 14892 yuan per kilogram [11][12] U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, which may extend the current interest rate cut cycle. The Federal Reserve has significant policy space, increasing the window for gold buying [7][23] Positioning and Trading Volume - The trading volume for Shanghai gold increased by 2.61% to 348,600 contracts, while the trading volume for Shanghai silver rose by 0.42% to 788,200 contracts [11][43] Domestic and International Price Differences - The domestic gold price difference from international prices is -12.66 yuan per gram, while the silver price difference is 792.11 yuan per kilogram [52] Futures Basis - As of the last week, the international gold basis (spot-futures) was $17.15 per ounce, an increase of $82.50 from two weeks ago, while the domestic gold basis was -5.86 yuan per gram, up by 0.65 yuan [57]
贵金属双周报（2025/12/01-2025/12/14）：降息交易进行时，贵金属上行动能充足-20251214
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-12-14 11:27