流动性与机构行为周度跟踪251212：如何理解中央经济工作会议的货币政策基调-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The central economic work conference shows increased confidence in the economy and a shift towards high - quality development. Fiscal and monetary policies will continue the 2024 tone. The 2026 deficit rate may remain at 4%, and government bond supply may only slightly increase. The central bank is cautious about the timing of interest rate cuts, and the implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts may require a change in the policy's perception of the fundamentals. If credit expansion is lower than expected, there may be an adjustment in policy orientation in Q1. The current bond market reaction is less active than in 2023, and the performance of the A - share market is also worthy of further observation. The year - end liquidity is expected to remain loose [4][5][31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1.1 This Week's Fundamentals Review - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 4.7 billion yuan this week, with limited impact. Due to low initial - month capital demand and reduced government bond payment pressure, funds remained loose. The overnight anonymous lower limit dropped to 1.25%, and DR001 fell below 1.30% after Tuesday and continued to decline, reaching 1.27% on Friday, a new low since August 2023. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on the 15th, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan [2][17] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to rise, with the daily average volume increasing by 150 billion yuan to 8.08 trillion yuan compared to last week, reaching a new high since July. Banks' net lending increased compared to last week, with joint - stock banks having the largest increase; non - bank institutions' rigid borrowing scale continued to rise, with funds having the largest increase. The capital gap index fluctuated and declined, reaching - 716.3 billion yuan on Friday, lower than - 470.8 billion yuan last Friday [3][23] 3.2 1.2 Next Week's Fund Outlook - The scale of next week's 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity will slightly increase from 663.8 billion yuan to 668.5 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will drop from 14.8 billion yuan this week to - 3.9 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in the second half of the week, but the overall scale is relatively limited. On the 15th, the central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan. The online issuance of Beijie Stock Exchange's new stock Jiangtian Technology on the 16th may disrupt the exchange's capital prices from Tuesday to Wednesday. The DR001 is expected to remain in the range of 1.3% - 1.4% and may slightly decline, and there may be some fluctuations in the second half of the month, but the year - end liquidity is expected to remain loose [10][68] - The scale of next week's national debt payment is about 304 billion yuan, and the local debt issuance scale of 6 regions is 40 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 56.3 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds will drop to - 3.9 billion yuan. It is estimated that the national debt issuance scale in December will be about 1.8 trillion yuan and the net financing scale will be about 320 billion yuan; the local debt issuance scale will be about 350 billion yuan and the net financing scale will be about 230 billion yuan. The overall government bond issuance scale in December is expected to be about 2.15 trillion yuan, and the net financing will be about 54 billion yuan [6][58] 3.3 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate rose 0.1BP to 1.65% compared to December 5th. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.5BP to 1.66% compared to last week [69] - This week, the increase in the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was less than the maturity scale, and they turned to a net repayment of 119.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 128.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, rural commercial banks, city commercial banks, and joint - stock banks were - 16.2 billion yuan, - 18.3 billion yuan, 3.4 billion yuan, and - 68.5 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 6 - month certificates of deposit was the highest at 43%, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased from 22% to 15%. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 1.0648 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4 billion yuan compared to this week [11][74] - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks increased compared to last week, while that of rural commercial banks decreased, and all banks were near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed. The relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit fluctuated upward, mainly due to the significant increase in the willingness of money market funds to increase holdings. The index rose to 33.7% on Friday, an increase of 5.2 percentage points compared to last week. The supply - demand index of 1 - year varieties decreased, while those of other maturities increased [11][86] 3.4 3. Bill Market - Bill rates continued to rise after Wednesday. As of December 12th, the rates of 3 - month and 6 - month national bills rose 3BP and 9BP respectively compared to December 5th, reaching 0.45% and 0.90% [94] 3.5 4. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market fluctuated strongly this week, and the credit and perpetual bond spreads were generally stable. The willingness of large banks to increase bond holdings increased, especially for inter - bank certificates of deposit, short - term national bonds, and short - term policy financial bonds. Trading institutions tended to increase bond holdings, while the willingness of allocation institutions to increase bond holdings decreased significantly [12][96]