能源化工石油沥青周度报告-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (Dec 4 - 10, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 29.9%, a 0.2% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 27.8%, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease. The decline was mainly due to the continuous shutdown of the large - scale unit of Hebei Xinhai and the low - to - medium - load production of major refineries in East China, despite the resumption of asphalt production at Guangzhou Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical and the stable production after the output increase at Karamay Petrochemical and Liaohe Petrochemical [4]. - From Dec 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 384,000 tons, a 3.8% week - on - week decrease. In North China, the overall supply decreased, and refineries mainly controlled the volume to deliver previous contracts, leading to a decrease in shipment volume. In Northeast and Northwest China, major refineries increased production, driving up the shipment volume [4]. - Crude oil weakened this week, but the escalating situation in Venezuela and the high - price winter storage trial in Hebei (3,000 yuan/ton) pushed BU to strengthen slightly against crude oil in the middle of the week. The average weekly theoretical profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 453 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The spot price of the asphalt market fluctuated between 3,081 - 3,086 yuan/ton, with a slowdown in the decline of the average spot price and a narrowing of the price fluctuation range [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - The capacity utilization rate of asphalt refineries decreased due to factors such as the shutdown of some large - scale units and low - to - medium - load production of major refineries. The shipment volume of asphalt enterprises decreased overall, with regional differences. The asphalt market showed a slight strengthening against the backdrop of weak crude oil due to geopolitical and winter - storage factors [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. There are also raw material supply options, including substitutes like SC, and different crude oils have different asphalt yields. Import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight also impact the cost [7]. - Futures - Disk Price and Trading Volume/Open Interest: There are data on the prices and trading volume/open interest of Brent, WTI, and SC, presented in a graphical form [11]. - Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil: Data on the prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margin of asphalt in Shandong are presented graphically [12]. - Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread: There are data on the basis in regions such as North China, Shandong, and the Yangtze River Delta, as well as calendar spreads, presented graphically [14][15][16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - Consumption Distribution: The demand for asphalt comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproofing market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, but the impact of some markets like the ship - fuel and coking markets is limited [21]. - Weekly Data: From Dec 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 384,000 tons, a 3.8% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified - asphalt enterprises was 9.0%, a 0.2% week - on - week decrease and a 0.5% year - on - year increase. The cold weather in the north reduced the production enthusiasm of modified - asphalt enterprises, while the rush - work demand in the south increased production, resulting in a slight decrease in the overall supply of modified asphalt [25]. 3.3.2 Supply - Supply Pattern: The supply of asphalt comes from domestic refineries (including major and local refineries) and imports. Refineries are divided by region and attribute. Key supply indicators include inventory, production start - up, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [27]. - Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials: From Dec 2 - 8, 2025, the weekly total asphalt production in China was 514,000 tons, a 0.9 - million - ton (1.8%) week - on - week increase and a 0.6 - million - ton (1.2%) year - on - year decrease. The cumulative production from January to December was 29.531 million tons, a 7.9% year - on - year increase. As of Dec 11, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 618,000 tons, a 2.5% decrease from Dec 8. The total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.036 million tons, remaining stable from Dec 8. There were regional differences in inventory changes [30]. - Start - up: There are data on the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions, presented graphically [33][34][35]. - Inventory: There are data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions, presented graphically [42].