哪些力量能够帮助债市企稳？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report As the bond market adjusts, multiple factors are gradually brewing and strengthening to support its stabilization. The supply pressure of government bonds is easing, and there is a possibility of shortening the issuance duration. On the demand side, the pressure on bank indicators may ease around the end of the year, the rising long - term bond yields will increase the allocation value of long - term bonds and boost the allocation demand of institutions such as insurance companies. Meanwhile, the reduction of trading institutions' positions will weaken the short - selling force. It is expected that the bond market will gradually stabilize in the subsequent period, start a trending market in the second half of the first quarter, and the 10 - year Treasury bond is still expected to hit a new low in the first quarter of next year [3][23]. 3. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Performance This Week - The bond market strengthened slightly overall this week but was volatile. After the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts on Thursday, interest rates declined significantly, but on Friday, there was an obvious adjustment and most of the previous gains were given back. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds both declined by 0.8bps to 1.84% and 2.25% respectively. The 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - perpetual bonds declined by 3.9bps and 0.4bps to 2.02% and 2.24% respectively. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rose slightly by 0.5bps to 1.66% [1][7]. Supply - Side Factors for Bond Market Stabilization - The supply pressure of government bonds will ease in the future. As of December 12, the net financing of general Treasury bonds was 5.04 trillion yuan, the net financing of special Treasury bonds was 1.8 trillion yuan, the issuance of new special bonds was 4.6 trillion yuan, and the issuance of new general bonds was 770 billion yuan. Even considering the subsequent use of the 500 billion yuan local bond balance limit, the annual government bond issuance task is basically completed. Next week, government bonds will have a net repayment of 119.1 billion yuan, the first time since April this year that the net repayment exceeded 100 billion yuan, and the supply pressure before the end of the year may remain limited. Although there will still be significant supply pressure for government bonds next year, the supply pressure at the long - end may be limited at the beginning of the year [1][8]. - There is a possibility of adjusting the supply - side duration. As the interest rate of ultra - long - term bonds rises, the issuance cost of ultra - long - term bonds has increased significantly, which may lead to changes in the maturity selection of local government bonds. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds has climbed above 40bps, significantly higher than the low of about 16bps in the first quarter of this year. The average issuance term of local government bonds has decreased from 16.4 years in January this year to 14.8 years in October, which will alleviate the supply pressure of ultra - long - term bonds and support the market to stabilize [1][11]. Demand - Side Factors for Bond Market Stabilization - The phased alleviation of bank indicator pressure can help the market gradually stabilize. The recent bond market adjustment is mainly reflected in the decline of ultra - long - term bonds, mainly because banks have been continuously reducing their holdings of ultra - long - term bonds in the secondary market due to the pressure of the △EVE to Tier - 1 capital ratio. As the end of the year approaches, the pressure on bank indicators will gradually ease, and the motivation to significantly reduce long - term bond holdings will decline. At the beginning of the year, banks may obtain new capital supplements, and the pressure of indicator constraints may further improve, which will further reduce the selling demand and may even turn to buying [1][17]. - As interest rates rise, allocation - oriented institutions such as insurance companies may gradually increase their allocations. The slowdown in the insurance allocation rhythm in the fourth quarter is due to the slowdown in premium income growth, an increase in the equity ratio in asset allocation, and concerns about interest rate trends. However, as long - term bond interest rates continue to adjust, their cost - effectiveness has significantly increased. The insurance "good start" will bring new premium income, forming new allocation demand [2][17]. - The reduction of trading institutions' positions means the weakening of subsequent short - selling forces. Trading institutions such as securities firms and funds usually follow market trends, accelerating market adjustments during the recent market decline. However, as their positions decrease, the selling force will decline, alleviating market adjustment pressure. Once the market stabilizes, their position - adding may help the market stabilize [2][18]. - From the perspective of market position, the adjustment of long - term bonds will enhance their attractiveness in terms of absolute return and curve shape. The spread between mortgage loans and 30 - year Treasury bonds is at the lowest level since mid - 2017, and the spread with 30 - year local bonds is at the lowest level since relevant data became available, which will increase the allocation demand of institutions. The increase in the curve slope will enhance the cost - effectiveness of the barbell strategy, increasing the allocation of long - term bonds [3][18].