美联储降息落地，金价震荡收涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Oscillating [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, market sentiment initially climbed, driving up precious metals, copper, and other non - ferrous metals. However, the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets performed worse than commodities. After two hawkish voting members spoke, market risk appetite cooled, and stocks and commodities pulled back [3]. - The Fed's overall stance in this meeting was not more hawkish than expected, but it raised the economic growth forecast for next year. The dot - plot shows one interest rate cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively, indicating limited future interest rate cut space. The internal divergence within the Fed has increased unprecedentedly, and market games on the interest rate cut rhythm will intensify [3]. - The US employment market continues to weaken, with the initial jobless claims rising to 236,000 after the Thanksgiving holiday. With important economic data and central bank meetings coming up, market volatility is expected to increase [4]. - In the short term, the gold price is oscillating and has not broken through the previous high. Attention should be paid to the callback risk [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold High - frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) decreased by 0.82 yuan/gram, a change rate of 16.3%. The internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) decreased by 11.47 yuan/gram, a change rate of 53426.7%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3 kilograms, a change rate of 0.0%. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 342,923 ounces, a change rate of - 0.94% [11]. - The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 2.86 tons, a change rate of 0.27%. The CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 7,145 lots, a change rate of - 6.9% [11]. - The US Treasury bond yield increased by 0.05 percentage points, a change rate of 1.2%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.58, a change rate of - 0.59%. The SOFR decreased by 0.26 percentage points, a change rate of - 6.6% [11]. - The US 10 - year break - even inflation rate increased by 0.0061 percentage points, a change rate of 0.27%. The S&P 500 index decreased by 43 points, a change rate of - 0.6%. The VIX volatility index increased by 0.3 percentage points, a change rate of 2.1% [11]. - The US 10 - year real interest rate increased by 0.04 percentage points, a change rate of 2.3%. The gold cross - market arbitrage trading decreased by 0.1, a change rate of - 1.4% [11]. 3.2 Financial Market - related Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 3.66%. Oil prices fell by 4.1%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.27% [18]. - The US dollar index fell by 0.6% to 98.4, and the US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.18%. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.63%, and the VIX index slightly rose to 15.7 [21]. - The real interest rate rebounded to 1.91%, and the gold price rose by 2.4%. The spot commodity index closed up, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6% [23]. 3.2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Foreign Exchange, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 index falling by 0.63%. Most developing - country stock markets rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% [25]. - US and German bonds rose, with a US - German interest rate spread of 1.32%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.5%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.95% [28]. - The euro appreciated by 0.83%, the British pound appreciated by 0.32%, the Japanese yen depreciated by 0.31%, and the Swiss franc appreciated by 1.12%. The US dollar index fell by 0.6% to 98.4, and most non - US currencies appreciated [31][34]. 3.3 Gold Trading - level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data showed that the SPDR gold ETF holding volume slightly rose to 1053 tons [37]. - The RMB exchange rate oscillated, and the discount of Shanghai gold widened. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 69.4 [39]. 3.4 Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's November social retail and industrial growth data; US December NAHB housing market index and New York Fed manufacturing index [40]. - Tuesday: Eurozone, UK, and US December manufacturing PMI; US November non - farm payroll report [40]. - Wednesday: The Fed starts the reserve management plan [40]. - Thursday: Bank of England and ECB December interest rate meetings; US November CPI [40]. - Friday: Bank of Japan December interest rate meeting [40].