Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on the medium - term trend of aluminum prices. The pricing logic for aluminum in Q4 2024 will continue in 2026. In 2026, under different scenarios, the aluminum market is expected to face shortages, and although there will be inventory accumulation in Q1, the pressure is relatively controllable [3]. - The alumina market needs significant supply - side clearing and supply - demand re - balancing to reverse the situation. The current supply is in excess and inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - Price and Market Outlook: The medium - term view is that aluminum prices will trend upwards. In 2026, under the baseline scenario (production and demand growth rates of 1.7% and 2.1% respectively, net imports of 2.4 million tons), the annual shortage is expected to be about 124,000 tons; under the optimistic scenario (production and demand growth rates of 1.7% and 2.6% respectively, net imports of 2.5 million tons), the annual shortage is expected to be about 258,000 tons. In Q1 2026, even if there is a price dip, it may be a good buying opportunity. In the short term, due to increased macro - disturbances at the end of the year, the Shanghai aluminum price has fallen back from the 22,000 mark [3]. - Inventory and Demand: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 14,000 tons to 579,000 tons this week. It is expected to decline slightly above the level at the end of last year by the end of the year. The downstream demand is showing signs of recovery, with the spot basis, downstream start - up rates, and downstream profits all improving [3]. Alumina - Price and Market Situation: The alumina price once fell below the 2,500 mark this week, and the main contract dropped to a minimum of 2,437 yuan/ton. The market is facing continuous over - supply and inventory accumulation, and the expected increase in ore supply next year may further drag down the price. However, due to the accumulation of short positions, trading factors are causing more disturbances [4]. - Inventory and Supply: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase this week, with an increase of 57,000 tons compared to last week. The inventory in the alumina plants decreased, while that in the electrolytic aluminum plants increased slightly. The port inventory decreased, and the inventory at stations/on - the - way increased significantly [44]. Trading - end - Price Spreads: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina strengthened this week. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium changed from - 80 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changed from - 195 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from 187 yuan/ton to 227 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changed from 252 yuan/ton to 322 yuan/ton [7]. - Volume and Open Interest: The open interest of the main Shanghai aluminum contract increased slightly, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the main alumina contract decreased slightly but remained at a historical high, and the trading volume increased slightly [14]. Inventory - Bauxite: As of December 12, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 1.4746 million tons compared to last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of November, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite in the阿拉丁 (ALD) caliber also showed a downward trend. In November, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises decreased by 370,000 tons month - on - month [24][30]. - Alumina: The total inventory of alumina continued to increase. As of December 11, the national alumina inventory was 4.585 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons compared to last week [51]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 14,000 tons to 579,000 tons as of December 11, continuing the de - stocking trend this week [52]. - Processed Materials: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory of aluminum rods decreased this week. As of November, the finished product inventory ratio and raw material inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles increased slightly, while the finished product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum sheets and foils increased slightly, and the raw material inventory ratio remained flat [58][61]. Production - Bauxite: In November, the domestic bauxite supply showed a differentiated situation. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In terms of different provinces, the bauxite production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi showed different trends in the steel - union and SMM calibers [66][67]. - Alumina: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of December 12, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 96.1 million tons, a weekly decrease of 400,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.859 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last week, and the supply - side over - supply situation remained unchanged [71]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of November, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit recovery. As of December 11, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum in the steel - union caliber was 853,600 tons, an increase of 30 tons compared to last week. As consumption entered the off - season, the proportion of aluminum water decreased seasonally, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots is expected to increase month - on - month [74]. - Downstream Processing: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum sheets and foils all decreased slightly, with decreases of 900 tons, 17,000 tons, and 21,000 tons respectively. The start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.1%, and the market performance was stable, generally in line with the seasonality [77][78]. Profit - Alumina: In November, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the steel - union caliber was 86.2 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit was under pressure. Among different provinces, the alumina profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, while the profit in Guangxi was better due to the relatively firm cost side [85]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum profit remained at a high level. However, the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [100]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 10 yuan/ton this week, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [101]. Consumption - Import and Export Profits and Losses: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased. In October 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials showed a differentiated situation [110][112][115]. - Absolute Consumption Volume: The transaction area of commercial housing remained at a low level, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [117].
铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20251214
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-14 12:15