能源化工尿素周度报告-20251214

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 14, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short - term outlook for urea is weak, while medium - term outlook is oscillatory [2] - The driving force is neutral in the short - term, with spot trading weakening and futures prices under oscillatory pressure. The subsequent driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2] - In terms of valuation, there may be policy pressure on urea. The 01 contract has a strong fundamental resistance level at 1700 yuan/ton and a support level between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Supply - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. The total new capacity in 2024 was 392 tons, and in 2025 it was 664 tons. There are also planned new capacities in 2026 [23] - Production: From December 4 - 10, 2025, China's urea production was 1385400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. Next week, the production is expected to be around 1.39 million tons with limited change [2] - Cost: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory cash - flow cost line has risen [29] - Profit: Urea cash - flow cost - corresponding profit is currently in a profitable state [34] - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, export policies have tightened [40] Demand - Agricultural Demand: Seasonal demand for agriculture is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [46][49] - Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The compound fertilizer industry's fundamentals show certain trends in capacity utilization, production cost, inventory and production profit [53][54][55] - Melamine: The melamine industry's fundamentals include production profit, market price, production volume and capacity utilization [57][58] - Real Estate and Wood Products: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [60] Inventory - Factory Inventory: On December 10, 2025, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 1.2342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.36%. Inventory decreased in some provinces and increased in others [2][66] - Port Inventory: China's urea port sample inventory was 123000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.14%, with some ports receiving more goods [2][66] International Urea - Price: The report presents the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and the CFR price in Brazil [19][70][71][72][73]