能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The raw material prices are firm due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia, while downstream procurement is cautious, and port inventories continue to accumulate. There is no obvious upward or downward driving force in the short - term [107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In November 2025, China's automobile production reached 3.532 million units, a record high. The export of automobiles reached 728,000 units, exceeding 700,000 for the first time. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles both approached 1.5 million units, with exports of 2.315 million units, doubling year - on - year [5]. - In October 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased by 22.7% year - on - year, while exports increased by 9.9% year - on - year. The domestic consumption increased by 0.7% year - on - year [6]. - The European electric vehicle market has improved, and European automakers are adjusting their powertrain strategies, using hybrid vehicles as a transitional technology [7]. 3.2 Price - This week, both domestic and international rubber prices rebounded, with NR having the largest increase. On December 12, 2025, the closing price of RU2605 was 15,230 yuan/ton, a 1.10% increase from the previous period; NR2605 was 12,345 yuan/ton, a 2.45% increase [10][12]. - The basis and spread of rubber prices have changed. For example, the spread between whole - milk rubber and RU05 was - 330 yuan/ton on December 12, 2025, a 9.59% increase from the previous period [13]. - The prices of substitute products such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber have also changed. The price of butadiene has supported the price of cis - butadiene rubber, but the downstream resistance to high - price offers remains [32]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather conditions: Thailand's southern region is in the rainy season with more rainfall than last year, while the northeastern region has ended the rainy season with lower temperatures. Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended their rainy seasons [40][42]. - Raw material prices: After the domestic production areas stopped production, the impact on prices was digested. Due to the tense geopolitical situation between Thailand and Cambodia, raw material prices first fell and then rose [44]. - Upstream processing profits: Thailand's rubber processing profits generally decreased. For example, on December 12, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 1,666 yuan/ton, a 13,983.33% decrease from the previous period [51][53]. - Export situation: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by standard rubber and mixed rubber. The exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's exports decreased year - on - month, mainly due to the sharp decline in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. Cote d'Ivoire's exports decreased month - on - month in November [63][69][75][76]. - Import situation: In October 2025, China imported 5.108 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a 14.27% decrease from the previous month and a 0.89% decrease year - on - year [80]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire production and sales: This week, the production capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises increased slightly, but the overall inventory began to accumulate again. In October 2025, the export of semi - steel tires continued to decline significantly, while the export of all - steel tires decreased slightly. The sales of heavy - duty trucks increased slightly, and the sales of passenger cars continued to grow in November [86][91]. - Road transportation turnover: In October 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [92]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Social inventory: As of December 5, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to accumulate, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port increased at a slower pace, and the general trade shipments improved [99]. - Futures inventory: On December 12, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 57,000 tons, a 25.17% increase from the previous week [104]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - View: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the rubber market fluctuates within a range. The raw material prices are firm, but downstream procurement is cautious, and inventories continue to accumulate [107]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, use the RU05 range - trading idea within [14,800 - 15,800]. For inter - period trading, conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread strategy. For inter - variety trading, observe [108].