国泰君安期货·能源化工：C3产业链周度报告-20251214

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the C3 industry chain by Guotai Junan Futures, covering LPG and propylene segments [1] LPG Part Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short - term, LPG is expected to oscillate at a low level, and in the medium - to - long - term, it remains under pressure [3] Summary by Section Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices and basis: Civilian gas prices have declined in some regions, while the import cost is firm, and the basis has widened significantly. For example, the weekly change of Shandong civilian gas is 8 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shandong civilian gas (main contract) has increased by 128 yuan/ton [9] - Regional quotes, discounts, and freight: Asian demand is robust, and the arbitrage space from the US Gulf to the Far East has expanded. The US - to - Far - East freight and the discount of US Gulf propane have changed [24] - Propane price: It remained firm and declined at the end of the week. For instance, the Propane CP M1 increased by 12.00 dollars/ton with a 2.39% increase [31] Supply - US LPG shipments: The shipments to China and other regions have different changes. For example, the shipments to China (weekly MA4) increased from 36 to 60 tons [41] - Canadian LPG shipments: Remained stable compared to the previous period [43] - Middle East LPG shipments: Spot is tight, and shipments are delayed. For example, the Middle East - to - China LPG shipments (weekly MA4) decreased from 97 to 65 tons [48] - LPG imports in China and other countries: China's propane supply increased by 33.79% week - on - week, with domestic production increasing by 2.36% and international arrivals reaching 60.6 tons [75] - LPG commodity volume: The total commodity volume is 52.3 tons (+1.1%), including 21.9 tons of civilian gas (+3.0%) [63] Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate increased, while MTBE operating rate decreased slightly [78] - LPG refinery inventory: The inventory is lower than the same period last year, and civilian gas refinery inventory increased slightly [80][88] - LPG terminal import cargo inventory: Arrivals increased week - on - week, with inventory accumulating in South China and slightly decreasing in Shandong [97] Propylene Part Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Propylene is expected to adjust in a narrow range [5] Summary by Section Price & Spread - Propylene industry chain prices: The upstream propane price remains firm, and propylene prices are stable. For example, the Shandong propylene price increased by 40 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase [109][124] - Propylene downstream product prices and profits: PP powder and granules maintain a weak trend, PO prices are firm, and the profit of butanol and octanol has improved significantly [110] - International and domestic propylene prices: International/US - dollar prices are stable, and domestic prices have limited upward and downward drivers and remain stable [112][120] Balance Sheet - Propylene industry chain operating rate: The operating rates of different production methods and downstream industries have changed. For example, the PDH operating rate increased by 2.65% to 72.87% [130] - National and regional propylene supply and demand balance: In December, the propylene supply - demand pressure in the Shandong market remains high, and a weak trend is expected [149] Supply - Overall upstream propylene operating rate: It is 74.2% (+0.2%). Different production methods have different changes. For example, the PDH operating rate increased by 2.7% to 72.9% [159][175] - Propylene imports and exports: The monthly import volume decreased by 7.55 tons (-36.17%) in October, and the monthly export volume decreased by 0.15 tons (-44.14%) [190] Demand - Propylene downstream industries' operating rates and profits: Different downstream industries have different performance. For example, the PP operating rate increased by 0.7% to 78.3%, while the PP powder operating rate decreased by 0.9% to 39.5% [195][209] Downstream Inventory - PP and powder inventory: The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports has changed. For example, the PP production enterprises' equity inventory decreased by 2.81 tons [273] - Other downstream inventories: The inventories of phenol, acetone, and acrylonitrile in different locations have also changed [279][280]