有色金属周报：美联储降息落地，多金属价格共振上行-20251214

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [57] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, gold prices have shown an upward trend, with the COMEX gold futures contract reaching $4329.8 per ounce, a 2.42% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.3% increase to 1053 tons. The Fed's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75% is expected to support gold prices in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [4] - Industrial Metals: The fundamentals for copper are tightening, and there is an optimistic outlook for copper prices. As of December 12, the SHFE copper futures contract rose 1.4% to 94080 yuan/ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 163,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. The LME copper inventory stood at 165,900 tons. The tightening supply of copper is expected to drive prices higher [5][6] - Aluminum: The LME aluminum futures contract fell 0.9% to $2875 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support aluminum prices, which are likely to remain stable [6] - Tin: The SHFE tin futures contract increased by 4.9% to 333,000 yuan/ton. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues in the Congo and export regulations in Indonesia are expected to tighten the market further [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic uncertainties and the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on the long-term investment in gold [4][5] Industrial Metals - Copper: The market is experiencing tightening supply, with a recommendation to focus on the copper sector due to expected price increases [6] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to maintain high levels of volatility, supported by macroeconomic factors [6] - Tin: Supply constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to potential price increases [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: - Gold: Recommended stock is Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining - Copper: Recommended stock is Luoyang Molybdenum - Aluminum: Recommended stock is Tianshan Aluminum [7]