南华期货烧碱产业周报：关注供应预期变化-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamental support for caustic soda is limited. As the off - season approaches, there is an expectation of further weakening in demand, and alkali plant inventories are relatively high. In terms of valuation, the liquid chlorine price is neutral. Although chlor - alkali profits have declined, production is at a high level, resulting in continuous supply pressure. In the medium to long term, the pressure of new production capacity remains, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. [1] - The high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. With insufficient fundamental support, the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Near - term trading logic: The current supply - demand situation is weak. It is the off - season for non - aluminum demand, and speculative demand at low prices has been falling short of expectations. The overall price of alumina is under pressure, leading to a pessimistic outlook for caustic soda demand. Chlor - alkali profits are moderately low, but production is at a high level, resulting in continuous supply pressure. [8] - Long - term trading expectations: The pressure of new production capacity in the medium to long term continues, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. [3] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. With insufficient fundamental support, the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. [9] 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - 32% caustic soda ex - factory price (converted to futures price): On December 12, 2025, prices in most regions remained unchanged compared to the previous day. Only in Shaanxi, Beiyuan's price dropped by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5%. [11] - 50% caustic soda ex - factory price (converted to futures price): On December 12, 2025, most prices were stable, except for Lutai, which decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7%. [11] - Flake caustic soda market price: On December 12, 2025, prices in most regions remained unchanged. In the Southwest, Central China, and East China regions, prices dropped by 50 yuan/ton, with decreases of 1.5%, 1.6%, and 1.5% respectively. [12] - Caustic soda grade/regional spread: On December 12, 2025, all spreads remained unchanged compared to the previous day. [12] - Caustic soda futures price/month spread: On December 12, 2025, the 05 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton (0.18%), the 09 contract decreased by 16 yuan/ton (- 0.68%), and the 01 contract increased by 8 yuan/ton (0.38%). The month - spreads also changed accordingly. [13] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Chlor - alkali profits have declined, and the overall market pricing is relatively pessimistic. [14] - Bearish information: Not provided in the document 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Observe the downstream demand, the off - season situation of non - aluminum industries, and the alkali - stocking rhythm of aluminum plants. [14] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital flow: This week, the caustic soda price continued to decline, reaching a new low for the year. However, there is no obvious upward driving force in both fundamentals and sentiment. [14] - Reasons: Caustic soda production remains at a high level, increasing supply pressure, and non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. [16] 3.3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - Shandong Jinling's 32% caustic soda (converted to 100% purity) is priced at 2156 yuan/ton, with a premium of 60 yuan over the 01 contract and 46 yuan/ton over the 03 contract. Alkali plant inventories are at a high level, and the fundamentals lack support. [17] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - As the caustic soda price falls, overall chlor - alkali profits have declined. The liquid chlorine price is relatively neutral, at 100 yuan/ton in both Jiangsu and Shandong. [27] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the Southeast Asian CFR price is 430 US dollars/ton, remaining stable for now. There is an expectation of substitution in overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed. [39] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - Caustic soda - 32% caustic soda spot price: The document shows the seasonal price trends of 32% caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. [44] - Caustic soda - 50% caustic soda spot price: It presents the seasonal price trends of 50% caustic soda in different regions including Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi. [52] - Flake caustic soda spot price: It shows the seasonal price trends of 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as North China, East China, Central China, and Northeast China. [55] - Spot regional spread: It includes spreads such as Shandong 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda, Jiangsu 49% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda, and Northwest 99% caustic soda - 50% caustic soda. [61] - Spot price converted to futures price: It shows the seasonal trends of the converted prices of caustic soda in different regions and grades. [68] - Caustic soda foreign - market price: It includes prices such as the Northeast Asian FOB price, Southeast Asian CFR price, Indian caustic soda price, US Gulf of Mexico FOB price, and Western European liquid caustic soda price. [96] 3.5.2 Supply Side - Caustic soda loss volume: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly caustic soda plant loss volumes. [103] - Liquid caustic soda production and operation rate: It presents the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly total production and operation rates of liquid caustic soda, as well as the production in regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. [105] - Flake caustic soda production and operation rate: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly total production and operation rates of flake caustic soda, as well as the production in regions such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. [114] 3.5.3 Demand Side - Alumina spot price: It shows the average prices and costs of alumina in different regions such as Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi, as well as the industry - wide average profit. [122] - Alumina weekly operation rate: It shows the seasonal trend of the national weekly operation rate of alumina. [124] - Operation rates of related industries: It includes the weekly operation load rates of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber in China. [126] - Caustic soda import - export volume: It shows the seasonal trends of monthly import and export volumes of caustic soda in China, as well as the export structure by continent. [131] 3.5.4 Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly factory inventories of liquid caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia, as well as in different regions of China. [137] - Flake caustic soda inventory: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly total inventory, factory inventory, and regional factory inventories of flake caustic soda. [149]