海外政策周聚焦：如何判断日央行后续的加息进程

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to discuss interest rate hikes in its upcoming meeting on December 19, with market expectations for a rate increase reaching approximately 90%[1] - If the BOJ raises rates to 0.75%, it would mark the highest borrowing cost in Japan since 1995[1] - The primary drivers for this policy adjustment include medium-term inflation expectations, wage growth prospects, and exchange rate pressures, rather than short-term price fluctuations[1] Economic Impact - The persistent depreciation of the yen has led to increased import costs and a solidified trade deficit, significantly impacting Japan's economic fundamentals[1] - The BOJ's rate hike aims to narrow the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S., stabilize the yen, and address trade imbalances[1] - Japan's government debt has reached 1,323.72 trillion yen, accounting for 263% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability amid rising interest rates[1] Market Reactions - The anticipated rate hike is expected to lead to structural adjustments in major asset classes, with the yen likely benefiting from the narrowing interest rate differential and triggering unwinding of carry trades[2] - Short-term bond yields are projected to rise sharply, while long-term yields may see a slight increase, further intensifying fiscal pressure on the Japanese government[2] - The stock market may experience short-term volatility, but structural differentiation is expected in the medium term, with bank stocks likely benefiting from improved net interest margins[2] Future Projections - The BOJ is likely to continue its rate hike cycle, with one to two additional hikes anticipated in 2026, contingent on wage growth and core inflation trends[3] - The government's aggressive fiscal policies may face constraints from both internal and external pressures, limiting their impact on the BOJ's monetary policy decisions[3]