国泰君安期货研究周报-20251214

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. The structural shift in surplus and potential risks from Indonesia's policies should be noted. Stainless steel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [4][5]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon's inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short on price increases, with the next - week's price range expected to be between 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the next - week's price range estimated to be between 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market lacks new driving forces, and the high - level oscillation is expected to continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [58][59]. - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil is waiting for Malaysia's December production reduction to confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to operate with a light position. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [91][93]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level, and soybean No.1 is expected to trade within a range. The prices of both are expected to oscillate next week [104][108]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The supply - demand mismatch has been marginally alleviated, and the near - end of the futures market remains relatively strong [122][127]. - Sugar: The international market is in a weak - expectation pattern and is expected to be sorted out at a low level. The domestic market is expected to operate weakly [148][150]. - Cotton: ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upside space may be limited [176][193]. - Hogs: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2601 contract in the futures market may face pressure [195][198]. - Peanuts: The spot price is stable, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategies of large oil mills [210][211]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: Nickel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with the surplus pressure structurally shifted. Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slight surplus and limited upside space for prices [4][5]. - Inventory: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons this week, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons. Stainless steel inventories also showed certain changes [6]. - Market News: There are various news events, such as Indonesia's policy adjustments, production restrictions in some projects, and changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trends: Industrial silicon's futures price first declined and then rose, with the spot price falling. Polysilicon's futures price opened low and closed high, with the spot price stable [28]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Industrial silicon's supply has a certain increase in some regions but a decrease in the southwest. The demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply has a slight decrease in the short - term, and the demand has a certain change in silicon wafer production [29][30]. - Inventory: Industrial silicon's social and factory inventories have increased, and polysilicon's factory inventory has also increased [29][30]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trends: Futures and spot prices have increased, and the basis has changed [56]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: The supply has a certain change in overseas shipments and domestic production, and the demand has a decline in downstream procurement willingness. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate has slowed down [57]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Last Week's Views: Palm oil rebounded after the MPOB report, but the high - inventory situation restricted the upside. Soybean oil lacked upward driving forces and oscillated within a range [90]. - This Week's Views: Palm oil's high production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. It needs to confirm the production reduction in December to find the price bottom. Soybean oil is affected by the slow sales progress of US soybeans and is expected to oscillate [91][93]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Last Week's Market: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices first fell and then rose, while soybean No.1 prices were relatively strong [104]. - Next - Week's Outlook: Both are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean prices and China's procurement, and soybean No.1 affected by spot prices and market news [104][108]. Corn - Market Review: Spot prices slightly declined, and futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The basis has strengthened [122][123]. - Market Outlook: CBOT corn prices declined, wheat prices fell, and the import corn auction restarted. Corn starch inventory decreased, and attention should be paid to the spot market [124][127]. Sugar - This Week's Market Review: International sugar prices increased slightly, and domestic sugar prices declined. The net long position of funds increased slightly [148][149]. - Next - Week's Market Outlook: The international market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and the domestic market is expected to operate weakly [150]. Cotton - Market Situation: ICE cotton is in a low - level narrow - range oscillation, and domestic cotton futures and spot prices are slightly stronger. The basis is relatively strong, and the increase in cotton warehouse receipts restricts the upside [176]. - International and Domestic Fundamentals: International cotton has various changes in production, consumption, and exports in different countries. Domestic cotton has a certain increase in prices, and the downstream situation is slightly worse [180][188]. Hogs - This Week's Market Review: Spot prices oscillated and adjusted, and futures prices were slightly stronger in oscillation. The basis has changed [195][196]. - Next - Week's Market Outlook: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices may face pressure [197][198]. Peanuts - Market Review: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices oscillated [210]. - Market Outlook: The spot price has regional differentiation, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties [211].