第50周成交涨跌互现，明年稳市场政策有望加码
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-14 12:39

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [2][3] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, with stronger policies expected next year to help stabilize market expectations [2][3] - New housing transaction volumes in major cities showed mixed results, with a 7.21% decrease week-on-week and a 33.3% decrease year-on-year for the week ending December 11, 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the cumulative transaction area for new homes in 30 cities from December 1 to 11, 2025, was 3 million square meters, reflecting a 38.5% increase compared to the same period in November 2025, but a 31% decrease year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - New home transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.97 million square meters for the week ending December 11, 2025, down 7.21% week-on-week and down 33.3% year-on-year [3] - First-tier cities saw a transaction area of 470,000 square meters, down 13.6% week-on-week and down 44% year-on-year [3] - Second-tier cities recorded a transaction area of 1.12 million square meters, down 8.48% week-on-week and down 22% year-on-year [3] - Third-tier cities experienced a transaction area of 370,000 square meters, up 7.37% week-on-week but down 43.7% year-on-year [3] Land Transactions - The land supply area was 2,426 million square meters, with a transaction area of 2,741 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sale ratio of 0.89 [3] - The total land transfer amount was 83.8 billion yuan, with a cumulative land supply area of 87,524 million square meters for the year, down 13% year-on-year [3] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities increased to 24.54 months, up 6.64% month-on-month and down 12.09% year-on-year [3] - The report indicates that the second-hand housing transaction volume in 24 cities increased by 2.67% week-on-week but decreased by 33.97% year-on-year for the week ending December 11, 2025 [3]