ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-12-14 12:50Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][6]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference highlighted the optimization of the "two new" policies, with an expected increase in subsidy amounts for 2026, from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025. The support scope is expanding from physical consumption to service consumption, indicating a significant policy shift [6][7]. - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: emotional consumption, intelligent consumer goods, branded apparel, and manufacturing upgrades. It emphasizes the potential for increased concentration in the paper and textile manufacturing sectors due to manufacturing efficiency, innovation capabilities, and environmental standards [6][7]. - The report identifies specific companies with growth potential, such as Pop Mart, which has a replicable IP incubation capability, and Morning Glory, which is undergoing a transformation [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index decreased by 1.04%, ranking 16th among 28 industries, while the textile apparel index fell by 2.57%, ranking 26th [6][11]. - The report notes a mixed performance in sub-sectors, with packaging printing up by 1.45% and home goods down by 1.75% [11]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies like Sun Paper, Baiya Co., and Huali Group, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4][6]. - Specific attention is drawn to the outdoor retail expansion of Li Ning, which is seen as a positive operational change [6][7]. Raw Material and Pricing Trends - The report tracks raw material prices, noting increases in MDI and TDI, while soft foam polyether prices have decreased. The prices of various paper products are also monitored, with packaging paper continuing to rise [19][44]. - The report highlights the rebound in broadleaf pulp prices and the overall positive trend in the paper sector, suggesting potential profitability improvements for companies like Sun Paper [7][44]. Export and Domestic Market Dynamics - The report discusses the recovery of exports, particularly in the furniture sector, with a noted increase in non-wood furniture exports from Vietnam to the U.S. [6][7]. - It also highlights the challenges in the domestic real estate market, with significant declines in property sales and construction activity [69][89].