美豆周度报告-20251214

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US soybeans have no basis for a bull market due to the expected high - yield in South America, but the downside space is limited as demand is expected to improve. Overall, the price will fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 1000 to 1200 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Relevant Categories 1. Market Price - US Soybeans: This week, the continuous closing price of US soybeans was 1076.75 cents per bushel, a decrease of 28.5 cents per bushel. The reasons are that China will complete the 1200 - million - ton procurement commitment by the end of February 2026 instead of the end of 2025, and the sowing speed of South American soybeans has accelerated. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American weather, and biodiesel policy progress [7] - US Soybean Meal: This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at 302.5 dollars per short ton, a decrease of 2.2 dollars per short ton, pressured by the postponed procurement time of China [10] - US Soybean Oil: This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated slightly and closed at 50.07 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.29 cents per pound. The market is worried about the slowdown of US soybean and soybean oil export demand, and the bearish Malaysian monthly report and Argentina's reduction of soybean oil export tariffs also put pressure on the oil [13] - Regional Prices: As of December 5, the price of US Gulf soybeans was 11.81 dollars per bushel, a weekly decrease of 0.21; the price of Iowa soybeans was 10.33 dollars per bushel, a weekly decrease of 0.15. On December 12, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 117.66 reais per bag, while the spot price at Brazilian ports fell to 141.31 reais per bag [16][18][20] 2. Supply Factors - US Drought: The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas remained at 65%, compared with 64% last week [25] - South American Weather: Brazil's main soybean - producing areas will have good precipitation in the next two weeks. Mato Grosso's rainy season has returned, and precipitation will be more than the same period. The precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul is slightly less than normal, with no sign of continuous drought. Argentina's precipitation will be less than the same period in the next two weeks [27][33][35] - Brazilian Sowing Progress: As of the week of December 5, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans was 90.3%, compared with 86% last week and 94.1% last year [41] 3. Demand Factors - US Soybean Pressing Profit: As of December 5, the pressing profit of US soybeans was 2.45 dollars per bushel, compared with 2.5 dollars per bushel last week [44] - Export Data: On October 31, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.0284 million tons, compared with 1.3881 million tons last week; on November 28, the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 0.9201 million tons, compared with 0.8087 million tons last week. The net sales this year were 1.2484 million tons, compared with 1.4497 million tons last week. The sales for the next year were 0 tons. In the week of December 5, the quantity shipped to China was 0.1198 million tons, compared with 0 tons last week [46][48][50] 4. Other Factors - ENSO Index: The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 1.103, remaining in the La Nina range [57] - Planting Cost: The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [59][61] - CFTC Positions: As of November 18, the net long position of soybeans was 259,400 lots, compared with 229,900 lots last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 2,300 lots, compared with 20,100 lots last week; the net long position of soybean meal was 63,400 lots, compared with 35,000 lots last week [65][67][69]