地方债周度跟踪：减国债利差表现分化，下周发行降速-20251214

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The current issuance of new special-purpose bonds has started to utilize the RMB 50 billion carry-over quota. As of December 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 95.5% and 102.7% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 96.2% and 103.4%. The carry-over quota of RMB 2 trillion for special bonds to replace hidden debts has been fully issued [2]. - The issuance and net financing of local bonds in the current period are similar to the previous period, and it is expected to decline significantly in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period has been extended [2]. - The spread between local bonds and treasury bonds has widened for 10-year bonds and narrowed for 30-year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased month-on-month. Attention should be paid to the cost-effectiveness of current 10/15-year local bonds [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The current issuance volume of local bonds has decreased, and the weighted issuance term has been extended - The current period (December 8 - 14, 2025) saw a total issuance/net financing of local bonds of RMB 106.955 billion/RMB 62.187 billion (compared to RMB 108.717 billion/RMB 60.494 billion in the previous period). The next period (December 15 - 21, 2025) is expected to have an issuance/net financing of RMB 40.037 billion/RMB 28.157 billion. The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period is 12.52 years, an extension from 11.22 years in the previous period [2][8][10]. - As of December 12, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 95.5% and 102.7% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 96.2% and 103.4%. The part exceeding 100% may come from the RMB 50 billion carry-over quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17. The cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeded the original RMB 4.4 trillion quota by RMB 12.02 billion/RMB 14.95 billion [2][13][16]. - In December 2025, the planned issuance of local bonds totals RMB 168.2 billion, including RMB 50.5 billion of new special-purpose bonds. As of December 12, 2025, 16 regions have disclosed a planned issuance of RMB 168.2 billion of local bonds, including RMB 50.5 billion of new special-purpose bonds. The issuance in the same regions in the same period last year was RMB 420.3 billion and RMB 0.8 billion respectively, and the national issuance in the same period last year was RMB 1091.3 billion and RMB 2.11 billion respectively [2][24][25]. - In the current period, RMB 7.3 billion of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, and RMB 0 billion and RMB 16.8 billion of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively. The quota of RMB 2 trillion for special bonds to replace hidden debts this year has been fully issued [2][20][21]. 2. The spread between local bonds and treasury bonds in the current period has widened for 10-year bonds and narrowed for 30-year bonds, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased month-on-month - As of December 12, 2025, the spreads between 10-year and 30-year local bonds and treasury bonds were 24.04BP and 18.13BP respectively, widening by 4.84BP and narrowing by 6.16BP compared to December 5, 2025 (which were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively), and were at the 79.00% and 68.00% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][28][32]. - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds in the current period is 0.86%, a month-on-month decrease from 0.87% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10-year local bonds in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Jilin, and Tianjin are better than the national average [2][39][40]. - Taking 10-year local bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. The current upper and lower limits of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP and 5 - 10BP respectively [2].