全球资产配置每周聚焦（20251205-20251212）：美联储降息落地，权益与商品分化涨跌互现-20251214

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.19%, increasing by 5 basis points this week[9] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.59%, currently at 98.4[9] Equity Market Performance - The ChiNext, German, and Korean stock markets saw significant gains, while the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Tech indices declined[3] - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the ChiNext Index up by 2.7% and the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.34%[8] Commodity Trends - Gold prices surged by 2.13% this week, while oil prices fell by 3.97% due to the resumption of production in key Iraqi oil fields[3] - The GSCI index for precious metals maintained a risk-adjusted return percentile of 100%[3] Capital Flows - In the week ending December 10, 2025, foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market was $4.29 million, while domestic capital outflow was $0.84 million[3] - U.S. fixed income funds saw a significant inflow of $51.3 billion this week[14] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at 83.8% of its historical average PE ratio over the past decade, indicating relative attractiveness compared to U.S. equities[3] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the S&P 500 remains at 43%, while the Nasdaq's has decreased from 38% to 33%[3] Economic Indicators - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November dropped to 51.0, indicating weakening consumer confidence[3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January 2026 is currently at 75.60%, down from 86.20% the previous week[3]