量化择时周报:情绪指标结构性分化延续,部分指标呈现震荡修复-20251214
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-14 13:09

Group 1 - Market sentiment score continued to decline, reaching 1.35 as of December 12, down from 2.4 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook from a sentiment perspective [2][8] - The overall trading volume in the market increased significantly, with total trading volume for the week rising by 15.14% compared to the previous week, averaging 19,530.44 billion yuan per day, with a peak of 21,190.10 billion yuan on December 12 [14][16] - The industry score model indicates that sectors such as non-bank financials, communication, defense, and automotive are showing upward trends in short-term scores, with communication having the highest short-term score of 77.97 [40][41] Group 2 - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price changes is strong, with a coefficient of 0.33, indicating that sectors with high congestion like communication and defense are leading in gains, while sectors with low congestion like steel and environmental protection are lagging [45][46] - The current model suggests a preference for large-cap and growth styles, with signals indicating that growth style may strengthen further in the future [40][51] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high for the phase, indicating an increase in leveraged funds and a structural recovery in risk appetite [26][28]