南华期货铜产业周报：预期比现实更重要，铜价面临调整-20251214

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate cut last week met market expectations, and copper prices reached new highs after a brief pause. However, the weakening rate - cut expectations led to speculative funds reducing positions at high levels. The copper market shows a "high - price but low - trading" state, and copper prices are expected to adjust at high levels [2][3]. - Cathode copper is in the late stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical high, with a risk of correction; LME copper is in the middle stage of an uptrend, with an upward trend and a neutral cycle. The risk - return ratios of going long on Shanghai copper and LME copper are both low, suggesting cautious participation [3][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The Fed cut interest rates last week as expected, but the probability of future rate cuts is low, causing speculative funds to reduce positions at high levels. The downstream shows a "high - price but low - trading" state, and the LME copper cancelled warrants support the premium of bonded - zone copper in China [2]. - Next week, the release of macro - economic data may increase copper - price volatility. Near the end of the year, the start - up rate of downstream enterprises is expected to rise, and copper prices are expected to decline to stimulate demand, but the decline is relatively limited [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The latest price percentile of Shanghai copper is 100%, and its one - week annualized volatility is 17.79%. The latest price percentile of LME copper is 99.87%, and its one - week annualized volatility is 18.65% [12]. - Trend Judgment: Cathode copper is in the late stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical high; LME copper is in the middle stage of an uptrend, with an upward trend and a neutral cycle [12]. - Price Range: The price range of Shanghai copper is [89777, 95223], with a center of 92500; the price range of LME copper is [11046, 11882], with a center of 11464 [12]. - Strategy Suggestions: The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 0.49%, and that of LME copper is 0.81%, both suggesting cautious participation [12]. - Combination Strategies: Recommend the "buy futures + sell put options" and "buy call options + sell put options" strategies. In the short - term high - level adjustment of prices, the cost - optimization strategy is recommended [14]. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies: The basis strategy is expected to strengthen; the calendar - spread strategy is neutral; the cross - border spread strategy is within the normal range, suggesting waiting and seeing [15]. 1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Recommendations - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short Shanghai copper futures contracts at pressure levels and enter the market at 93000 - 95000. They can also consider selling call options or buying put options, currently on hold [18]. - Raw - Material Management: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory, they can buy long - position futures contracts near support levels. They can also consider buying up - and - out accumulator options at 90000 - 94000 [19]. 1.4 Review of Trading and Hedging Strategies - The previous long - position futures hedging positions bought at low levels can be held. For those not hedged, they can consider the "sell put options + buy call options" combination strategy [19]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretation 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 11; the Central Economic Work Conference was held, setting the direction for economic development; the copper output of some major mines in Chile decreased, and the supply - side vulnerability increased [21]. - Negative Information: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the future is low; domestic electrolytic - copper inventory continues to accumulate; the proportion of Chinese - produced copper in LME available inventory has increased [22][23]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretation - Next week, important macro - economic indicators such as China's fixed - asset investment, unemployment rate, and the US retail sales and unemployment rate will be released [25]. 3. Interpretation of Disk Price, Volume, and Funds 3.1 Domestic Market Interpretation - The trading volume of the Shanghai copper weighted index increased by 3.13% week - on - week, and the position decreased by 1.03%. The market speculation degree rebounded from a low level. The main contract of Shanghai copper shifted to 2602, with the price fluctuating around 92424, closing at 94080 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.77% for the week [29]. - The term structure of Shanghai copper shows a slight backwardation in the forward contracts, and INE international copper shows a "first - backwardation - then - contango" structure [29]. 3.2 Foreign Market Interpretation - LME copper prices reached a new high and then fell, and COMEX copper prices also adjusted after briefly hitting the 550 pressure level. The decline and amplitude of COMEX copper are greater than those of LME copper [32]. - LME copper prices fluctuated in the range of [11434.5, 11952], closing at 11552.5 US dollars/ton, down 1.05% for the week. COMEX copper prices fluctuated in the range of [528, 553.05], closing at 535.85 US cents/pound, down 1.25% for the week [32]. 4. Spot Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Spot Price and Smelting Profit - The spot price showed strong growth in the second half of the week, with a narrowing premium. The scrap - copper processing enterprises' start - up rate declined, and the scrap - copper supply was tight, supporting price increases. The refined - scrap spread showed a "first - decline - then - rebound" trend [36]. - The processing fees of power - rod and enameled - wire enterprises remained flat. The start - up rates of copper - tube, copper - plate, and copper - rod enterprises declined. The smelting income of refined - copper spot increased, and the smelting plants' purchasing willingness rebounded from a low level [36]. 4.2 Import Profit and Import Volume - The import profits of copper and recycled copper further decreased, suppressing domestic enterprises' import willingness. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in November were 42.7 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November decreased by 4.7% year - on - year [38]. - Chile's copper exports in November increased by 4.57% year - on - year, and the exports to China accounted for 23.4%. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November increased by 3% month - on - month and 12.5% year - on - year [39]. 4.3 Inventory Analysis - The "siphon effect" of Comex copper inventory still exists, and both domestic and foreign copper inventories have increased. LME copper cancelled warrants increased significantly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 39.78%, with a slowdown in the rebound rate [44][46]. - Due to the weakening import profit and the rebound of the Yangshan copper premium, domestic smelting enterprises have a high willingness to export copper, resulting in less copper imports [46]. 5. Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectation 5.1 Supply Deduction - In 2025, the global copper - concentrate output is expected to be 1987.1 million tons, and the supply - demand balance of global copper concentrates is - 16.6 million tons. In 2026, the global copper - concentrate output is expected to be 2044.1 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is - 33.1 million tons [51][53]. - China's electrolytic - copper output in November was 110.31 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. It is expected to be 116.88 tons in December, with a year - on - year increase of 6.69% [53][54]. 5.2 Demand Expectation - In November, China's copper - product output was 178.79 tons, with a comprehensive start - up rate of 61.6%. In December, the start - up rates of most industries are expected to increase slightly, and the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper is expected to rebound [56][58]. 5.3 Price Expectation - The domestic and foreign copper prices reached new highs and then fell, and the upward trend has paused. The Fed's rate cut has been fully priced in. Before new positive factors emerge, prices need to adjust at high levels to increase spot - purchasing willingness [62].