国泰君安期货·能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market fluctuated within a range due to geopolitical conflicts. The raw material prices remained firm due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia, while downstream procurement was cautious, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term as there is no obvious upward or downward driving force [108]. - Suggested trading strategies include range - bound operations for RU05 within the range of 14,800 - 15,800 yuan/ton, a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contract, and continued observation for cross - variety trading [109]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, a new monthly high. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were close to 1.5 billion units, with exports of 2.315 million units, doubling year - on - year. The full - year automobile exports are expected to reach 7 million units [5]. - In October 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased by 22.7% year - on - year, while exports increased by 9.9% year - on - year. The domestic consumption increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with latex gloves being the main consumer [6]. - The European electric vehicle market has improved, and European automakers are adjusting their powertrain strategies, using hybrid vehicles as a transition technology while continuing to invest in electric vehicles [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and international rubber markets rebounded, with NR having the largest increase. On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,230 yuan/ton, 12,345 yuan/ton, 173 cents/kg, and 330.8 yen/kg respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.10%, 2.45%, 1.23%, and 1.66% [10][12]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather in Thailand: The southern part of Thailand has entered the rainy season with more rainfall than last year, while the rainy season in the northeastern part has ended with lower - than - average temperatures [40]. - Weather in China: The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have basically ended [42]. - Raw material prices: After the domestic production areas digested the sentiment of production cuts due to the end of the tapping season, the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia affected tapping and factory production, causing raw material prices to rise after a decline [44]. - Raw material spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has decreased, while the spread between Hainan's glue going into the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory has increased [48]. - Upstream processing profits: The rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally decreased [51]. - Export data: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly driven by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a significant reduction in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased month - on - month, with latex having a relatively large increase. In November 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and exports to China also decreased significantly [62][65][68][74][75]. - Import data: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 5.108 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. Imports of Thai standard rubber continued to decline, while imports of Indonesian standard and mixed rubber were at a high level year - on - year, and imports of Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: During the week, the production of maintenance enterprises gradually resumed, driving up capacity utilization to some extent. However, the overall shipment pace was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control. Tire inventories started to accumulate again [84]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In October 2025, semi - steel tire exports continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while full - steel tire exports decreased slightly. Heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month but at a slower pace. In November 2025, passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline [89]. - Road transport turnover: In October 2025, the freight turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [90]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Spot inventory: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory accumulation in Qingdao Port has weakened, and the general trade shipment volume has "recovered" compared to the previous period [97]. - Futures inventory: As of December 12, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 57,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.17%. The 20 - number rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 59,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.87% [105].