中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报：PVC + NAOH + CL-20251214

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, the upstream is suffering severe losses with the price slightly weakening and comprehensive profit deteriorating, which may lead to potential production cuts. The downstream has a weak operating rate, and the trading volume is mainly concentrated on low - price point - price orders. The mid - stream traders are cautious, with a slight increase in the sentiment of bottom - fishing. The export volume is stable, and the inventory situation is complex, with some signs of de - stocking expected based on current production and apparent demand [6][9][10]. - For caustic soda, the overall production is at a high level, with a small increase in production this week. The inventory is slightly reduced this week, but it is estimated to accumulate slightly next week. The price is weakening, and the profit of the chlor - alkali complex is deteriorating. Traders are cautious, and the downstream demand is relatively stable [100][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PVC 1.1 Supply - This week's total PVC production is 48.91 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The ethylene - based production is 14.53 tons, and the calcium - carbide - based production is 34.38 tons. Next week, as some maintenance devices resume production, the production is expected to increase slightly. The import volume remains stable at 1.50 tons per week, and the export volume is 5.75 tons per week, but the export signing volume has slightly declined this week [6]. - There are multiple PVC production devices under maintenance or shut - down, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, etc. Some devices are expected to resume production in the near future, such as Zhengyang Development's device which is expected to resume on December 13, 2025 [13]. 1.2 Demand - This week's apparent PVC demand is 44.00 tons, slightly lower than expected. The expected apparent demand for next week is 47.63 tons. The demand has some seasonal increments in December, but the weekly apparent demand tracking is worse than expected [6]. 1.3 Price and Basis - The PVC spot price has slightly weakened this week. The basis of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China, South China, and Shandong has strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread has also strengthened [9]. 1.4 Profit - The production profit of calcium - carbide in Shaanxi has increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali and the profit of PVC production in Northwest China have continued to deteriorate. The export profit has slightly improved [9]. 1.5 Inventory - This week, the old - sample inventory has increased by 0.66 tons, and if calculated based on the current production and apparent demand, it is expected to slightly reduce inventory next week. The inventory of mid - stream traders has decreased by 1.19 tons, while the new - sample inventory has increased by 0.04 tons. The upstream inventory has increased by 1.85 tons [6]. 2. Caustic Soda 2.1 Supply - This week's total caustic soda production is 84.85 tons, a slight increase from last week. Next week, the production is expected to remain high. The import volume is stable at 0.02 tons per week, and the export volume is 7.30 tons per week [101]. 2.2 Demand - This week's apparent demand for caustic soda is 79.87 tons, higher than last week. Next week, the apparent demand is estimated to be around 77.53 tons based on historical data [101]. 2.3 Price and Basis - The price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has weakened to 675 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda has generally weakened, and the spread between different contracts shows different trends [7][103]. 2.4 Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased by 145 yuan/ton, and the profit of supporting PVC - type enterprises has continued to deteriorate [103]. 2.5 Inventory - This week, the national caustic soda inventory has slightly decreased, but it is estimated to accumulate slightly next week based on static data. The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong has decreased by 4.77 tons, and the flake caustic soda inventory has slightly increased [101].