行业比较周跟踪：A股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报-20251214

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 12, 2025, shows the following PE and PB ratios: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21x, PB at 1.8x, at historical percentiles of 77% and 39% respectively - SSE 50 PE at 11.7x, PB at 1.3x, at historical percentiles of 62% and 40% - CSI 300 PE at 13.9x, PB at 1.4x, at historical percentiles of 61% and 31% - CSI 500 PE at 32.7x, PB at 2.2x, at historical percentiles of 61% and 45% - CSI 1000 PE at 46.6x, PB at 2.4x, at historical percentiles of 66% and 45% - National Index 2000 PE at 59.8x, PB at 2.6x, at historical percentiles of 76% and 60% - ChiNext Index PE at 40.7x, PB at 5.2x, at historical percentiles of 35% and 59% - Sci-Tech 50 PE at 152.3x, PB at 6x, at historical percentiles of 96% and 63% - ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE at 2.9x, PB at 3.6x, at historical percentiles of 23% and 58% [2][3][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include: - Real Estate, Retail Trade, and IT Services (Software Development) - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include: - Electronics (Semiconductors) and Telecommunications - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include: - Medical Services [2][3][7] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaics: - Upstream prices remain stable, with polysilicon futures down 2.9% - Demand expected to remain weak before the Spring Festival, limiting price increases - Batteries: - Cobalt and nickel prices down 0.8% and 1.4% respectively - Lithium prices show an upward trend, with lithium hexafluorophosphate up 0.3% and carbonate up 3.4% - New Energy Vehicles: - Retail sales of new energy vehicles grew 4.2% year-on-year in November 2025, but growth rate slowed [2][3][6] Real Estate Chain - Steel: - Rebar prices down 1.3% and futures down 3.1% - Daily crude steel production down 6.5% month-on-month - Building Materials: - Cement price index up 0.1%, while glass prices down 2.5% [2][3][6] Consumption - Pork: - Average price of live pigs up 2.5%, while wholesale pork price down 1.0% - Baijiu: - Wholesale price index up 0.02%, but prices for premium brands like Moutai down significantly [2][3][6] Cyclical Industries - Non-ferrous Metals: - LME copper down 1.0%, aluminum down 0.9%, while zinc up 1.3% - Oil: - Brent crude oil futures down 4.1% to $61.22 per barrel - Coal: - Prices for thermal coal down 5.1% due to increased supply [2][3][6]