行业比较周跟踪（20251206-20251212）：A股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报-20251214
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-14 13:41

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 12, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 21x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 62nd and 40th historical percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 13.9x and a PB of 1.4x, at the 61st and 31st historical percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 40.7x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 35th and 59th historical percentiles [2] - The STAR 50 Index has a PE of 152.3x and a PB of 6x, at the 96th and 63rd historical percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile [2] Industry Midstream Economic Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream prices remain stable, with polysilicon futures down 2.9% and spot prices unchanged [2] - Battery materials show mixed trends, with cobalt and nickel prices down 0.8% and 1.4% respectively, while lithium prices have increased significantly over the past quarter [2] - The demand for new energy vehicles has seen a year-on-year retail sales increase of 4.2%, although this is a slowdown compared to previous months [2] Real Estate Chain - The steel market has seen a decline in rebar prices by 1.3% and futures by 3.1%, with iron ore prices also down 0.9% [3] - Cement prices have increased slightly by 0.1%, while glass prices have decreased by 2.5% [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs has increased by 2.5%, while wholesale pork prices have decreased by 1.0% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor has shown a slight increase, but specific brands like Moutai have seen price drops [3] Cyclical Industries - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has influenced commodity prices, with gold and silver prices rising [3] - Brent crude oil prices have decreased by 4.1%, attributed to geopolitical developments [3] - Coal prices have also declined due to increased supply and inventory levels [3]