南华期货钢材产业周报：出口预期收紧，低位震荡-20251214

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Central Economic Work Conference last week, the overall tone was moderate, with no mention of real - estate support policies. The pricing focus of the steel market has returned to fundamentals, and the previous macro - premium has been reversed. [1] - The supply of molten iron is decreasing due to seasonal patterns and steel enterprise profitability. However, recent raw material price concessions have improved blast furnace and electric furnace profits, potentially slowing down the steel production cut. [1] - Seasonal weakness in demand is the core issue for steel prices. Real - estate steel demand is shrinking, and cold weather restricts construction. New steel export regulations may reduce exports next year, weakening the support for steel prices. [1] - The overall inventory of the five major steel products is decreasing. Rebar inventory reduction is relatively healthy, but hot - rolled coil inventory reduction is slower than expected. [1] - The main contradiction currently lies in the furnace materials. Iron ore port inventory is increasing, and its valuation is high, but there is support from winter stockpiling. Coking coal supply is relatively abundant, and its price is weak, but it rebounded at night due to anti - involution news. [1] - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 may be between 2900 - 3300, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 may be between 3000 - 3400. [1] Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level support has faded, and the steel market is back to fundamentals. [1] - Supply: Molten iron production is decreasing, but profit improvement may slow the production cut. [1] - Demand: Seasonal weakness, real - estate demand decline, and potential export reduction. [1] - Inventory: Rebar inventory reduction is better than hot - rolled coil. [1] - Furnace materials: Iron ore has high inventory and valuation, with winter - stockpiling support; coking coal supply is abundant. [1] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Range - bound oscillation. The rebar range may be 2900 - 3300, and the hot - rolled coil range may be 3000 - 3400. [5][6] - Hedging Strategies: Positive spreads for finished products have a high profit - loss ratio; shrink the hot - rolled coil to rebar price difference. [6] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: Rebar 01 contract may range from 2900 - 3300 with a volatility of 12.83% (24.5% percentile); hot - rolled coil 01 contract may range from 3100 - 3500 with a volatility of 10.54% (7.49% percentile). [7] - Risk Management Strategies: For inventory management, short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell call options; for procurement management, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell put options. [7] Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - Negative Information: The basis is gradually weakening. [11] 2.2 Next - Week Important Events to Follow - Next Monday: China's November year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods and value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size. [14] - Next Tuesday: US November unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls. [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Basis: No significant changes in the term structure of rebar, still in a deep Contango structure; the far - month of hot - rolled coil shows a Contango structure. [23] - Hot - Rolled Coil to Rebar Price Difference: Spot and futures price differences may continue to shrink. [20] - Term Structure: Rebar's term structure is stable, and hot - rolled coil's far - month shows Contango. [23] - Monthly Spread Structure: There are different seasonal patterns for rebar and hot - rolled coil monthly spreads. [27][28][29] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Steel mill profitability has dropped below 40%, but blast furnace and electric furnace profits are improving, reducing the motivation for production cuts of the five major steel products. [30] 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - There are various indicators for tracking hot - rolled coil export profits, such as seasonal patterns and relationships with export volumes and orders. [49] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Steel production (rebar and hot - rolled coil) has decreased, and inventory has also decreased slightly. Molten iron production and scrap consumption have decreased. [70] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Production is affected by profitability, furnace maintenance, and raw material consumption. Different steel products have different production trends. [76][77][80] 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - There are various consumption forecasts for different steel products, and inventory levels also vary among different steel products. [90][93][103]