Group 1: Market Overview - The market rebound is entering a late stage, with expectations of a transition to a consolidation phase next week, while downside risk remains limited, providing opportunities for accumulation [5][14]. - The technology sector continues to lead the rebound, while the energy sector is lagging behind [1][9]. - Recent political meetings have emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand, with state-owned enterprises encouraged to implement major projects to support this initiative [2][10]. Group 2: Consumer Sector Insights - Weak consumption persists, particularly in the liquor sector, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai dropping below the official guidance price, leading to new cyclical lows for staple consumer sectors [2][10]. - Despite pessimistic earnings expectations, valuations in the liquor sector have fallen to low levels, and rising dividend yields are beginning to show allocation value [2][10]. Group 3: External Market Influences - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has shifted to a range-bound pattern, reflecting market caution regarding inflation and future rate cuts [3][11]. - International metal prices have seen fluctuations, with precious metals like silver and gold experiencing gains, although profit-taking has occurred in the metals complex [3][11][12]. Group 4: Fund Flows and Market Activity - A-share average daily turnover has risen to RMB1.95 trillion, while Hong Kong market turnover has recovered to HKD207 billion [4][13]. - There have been net outflows from equity ETFs, while margin financing flows remain positive, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [4][13]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Opportunities - Domestic consumption themes are beginning to receive supportive signals, which may lead to relative outperformance in a range-bound market [5][14]. - Within the technology sector, segments that have corrected more fully, such as the Hang Seng Tech Index and policy-supported domestic computing power, continue to offer value for accumulation on dips [5][14].
反弹趋于后期,市场重回震荡蓄势
Haitong Securities International·2025-12-14 14:01