南华期货白糖产业周报：15美分能够稳住吗？-20251214

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core contradiction in the sugar market lies in the supply - demand differences between domestic and international markets, resulting in the current pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - The pricing of the domestic 01 contract will approach the Guangxi price, and the 05 contract may decline to a very low price due to increased supply pressure [1]. - The international raw sugar price is expected to continue the game around 15.2 cents, with limited upside potential in the near - term [2]. - The long - term structure of Zhengzhou sugar shows a downward trend, with the 05 contract being continuously suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The focus of market trading is the supply - demand difference between domestic and international markets. The key contradictions affecting sugar prices include the final pricing of the domestic 01 and 05 contracts and whether the international market can regain stability at 15 cents [1][2]. - The 01 contract is stronger than the 05 contract because of the higher spot price. The 05 contract has greater pressure due to increased domestic and imported sugar supply in the future [1]. - The international raw sugar price has rebounded to above 15 cents, but the upside is limited as positive factors mainly affect the far - month contracts [2]. - The SR2501 contract is approaching the delivery month, and its price is mainly based on the Guangxi new sugar price. The far - month contracts show a discount structure due to expected production increases [4][7]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a downward trend, with the 05 contract being suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [9]. - Recommended strategies include the basis strategy of buying 01 and shorting the spot, and the spread strategy of going long on 01 and shorting 05 or 03 [9]. - Past strategies' performance includes stop - losses, entries, exits, and profit - taking [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of sugar is 5200 - 5500, with a current volatility of 6.02% and a historical percentile of 2.2% [10]. - For inventory management, strategies include shorting Zhengzhou sugar futures and selling call options. For procurement management, strategies include buying Zhengzhou sugar futures and selling put options [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of December increased by 21% compared to the daily average of the previous December. Thailand set a new cane base price for the 2025/26 season [11]. - Negative information: In the 2025/26 season in Guangxi, 65 sugar mills have started production, 7 less than the previous year. In India's Maharashtra state, sugar production has accelerated. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased by 17.14% [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Brazil's weekly port sugar waiting - to - ship quantity and number of vessels (Thursday, Beijing time), Brazil's November sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time), and India's sugar - pressing progress [14][16]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The domestic futures price decreased by 0.36% this week. The SR2605 contract's positions increased seasonally. The market shows a bearish technical pattern [18]. - The basis of the 01 contract is expected to return to near - par as the delivery month approaches. The market shows a back structure with the 01 - 05 spread widening [20]. - International Market: The international raw sugar price rebounded by 1.89% last week, reaching 15.2 cents on Friday. The non - commercial positions in CFTC show an increasing short - selling trend [22]. - The international raw sugar futures show a back structure, and the hedging pressure above 15.2 cents has reappeared [24]. - Domestic - International Spread: Due to the quota system, the price relationship between domestic and international sugar is complex. Recently, the pattern has changed from strong domestic and weak international to the opposite [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Import Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of sugar. Due to the quota system, the current out - of - quota import profit is substantial. The import volume of syrup and premixed powder from other Asian countries has increased [29]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In the 25/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to reach about 1170 tons, a 4.82% increase year - on - year, considering the good growth of sugarcane in Guangxi [31]. - Other data in the supply - demand balance sheet are estimated based on the 24/25 season and current situations, and this week's data remain unchanged [31].