2026年光伏策略报告：供给侧拐点已至，供需逐步修复-20251214

Demand - Global photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity continues to grow, while China's installation is expected to decline from a high level. In 2025, China's installed capacity is projected to be 290GW, a 5% increase from 2024, but a decrease to 215GW in 2026, reflecting a 26% drop [4][11] - The global PV installed capacity is expected to reach 599GW in 2025, an 11% increase year-on-year, and 588GW in 2026, a 2% decrease due to the decline in domestic installations [4][11] Supply - The industry is experiencing a turning point with supply gradually recovering. Capacity expansion in various segments is expected to stop, and even production cuts may occur, alleviating the oversupply situation [4] - The profitability of companies is under pressure, but a moderate recovery in operating rates is anticipated as the industry moves out of a low production phase [4] - Major companies are forming alliances to address the oversupply and price inversion issues, exemplified by the establishment of a storage platform by leading silicon material companies [4] Industry Chain - The acceleration of capacity clearance is expected to restore price margins. The silicon material industry is projected to have a total capacity of approximately 3 million tons by the end of 2025, with current operating rates at 37% [4] - The price of silicon materials has rebounded to around 50 RMB, and profitability is expected to improve in 2026 as the market clears [4] - The inverter segment is experiencing significant growth, with global demand for large-scale storage and commercial storage increasing [4] Investment Recommendations - High-growth areas include inverters and brackets, with recommended companies such as Sungrow Power Supply, Huaneng Renewables, and others [4] - Leading silicon material companies benefiting from supply-side reforms and cost advantages include Tongwei Co., Ltd. and others [4] - New technology leaders in the industry include companies focusing on new materials and perovskite technology [4]