GF SECURITIES·2025-12-14 14:29Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [41]. Core Insights - The report discusses the concept of "asset scarcity," which is explained through two perspectives: the mismatch between supply and demand for funds, and the insufficient supply of quality assets that meet investors' risk and return preferences. It argues that the traditional supply-demand imbalance does not adequately explain the phenomenon of asset scarcity [5][13]. - The report identifies three dimensions of asset scarcity: macro, meso, and micro. It emphasizes that the bond market is primarily concerned with the micro-level aspects of asset scarcity [5][16]. - To alleviate macro-level asset scarcity, the report suggests increasing credit issuance and fiscal efforts, enhancing liquidity management by the central bank, and guiding non-bank funds back to banks to lower residents' yield expectations on non-bank assets [20][23]. - At the meso level, the report highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary growth rates, suggesting that credit and fiscal efforts should be strengthened while avoiding capital idling [23][24]. - The micro-level analysis focuses on the expectations of institutions regarding asset-liability expansion and actual expansion, noting that there is often a mismatch between liabilities and suitable assets [25][29]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Asset Scarcity Exploration - The report explores why the market has shifted its focus away from "asset scarcity," attributing this to a lack of significant asset-liability gaps in the real economy and the nature of interest rates as contractual [5][13]. - It discusses the macroeconomic factors influencing asset scarcity, including the expected decline in bond market yields and economic forecasts [16][18]. Section 2: Financial Institutions' Asset-Liability Management - The report provides a detailed analysis of financial institutions' liabilities, emphasizing the need for a balance between asset expansion and government debt supply [25][29]. - It projects that by 2026, the demand for government bonds will increase by 1.5 trillion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a growing need for asset allocation in the banking sector [25][29]. Section 3: Insurance Sector Analysis - The report estimates that the insurance sector will face a net increase in asset-liability mismatch of 1.28 trillion yuan by 2026, driven by the expiration of high-yield non-standard investments and continuous growth in premium income [30][29]. Section 4: Expected Returns and Market Dynamics - The report highlights the compression of asset-liability yield spreads due to rigid liabilities and flexible asset yields, which contributes to the practical aspect of asset scarcity for enterprises and theoretical scarcity for residents [35][29]. - It suggests that banks should lower the rigid costs of liabilities and guide non-bank entities to adjust their yield expectations [35][29].