配置在左，交易在右

Policy Insights - The political bureau meeting emphasized "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," balancing growth stabilization and risk prevention for the medium to long term[2] - The central economic work conference provided detailed explanations of the political bureau's statements, confirming or refuting various market expectations[2] Interest Rate Dynamics - Long-term interest rates experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.84% and the 30-year bond yield slightly decreasing to 2.25% during the week of December 8-12[11] - Market concerns regarding monetary policy for 2026 include whether there will be increased monetary easing and the extent of fiscal stimulus[3][4] Fiscal Policy Projections - The target fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain around 4.0%, with new special bond issuance potentially increasing to approximately 5 trillion yuan and long-term special government bonds expanding to about 1.8 trillion yuan[4][24] - The projected increase in narrow deficit scale, special government bonds, and local special bond quotas for 2026 compared to 2025 is approximately 2.8 billion, 5 billion, and 6 billion yuan respectively, with a total increase in the range of 1.3 to 1.4 trillion yuan[4][24] Market Outlook - The combination of loose monetary policy and stable fiscal policy is expected to support the bond market in 2026[4][24] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently at 1.84%, close to the effective upper limit of 1.90%, indicating limited potential for adjustment in the bond market[6][30] Investment Strategies - For long-term investors, the focus should be on medium to long-term returns, as current yields may meet next year's return targets, suggesting gradual entry into the market[6][30] - For short-term traders, maintaining discipline and waiting for clearer signals before adjusting positions is recommended, with potential for small-scale contrarian operations during market adjustments[6][30] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts pose risks to market stability[7]