原油产业周报：地缘紧张难抵基本面弱势，油价震荡偏弱-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Oil prices are fluctuating within a range due to the uncertainty of geopolitical situations and the continuous weakness of fundamentals. The tense situation between the US and Venezuela has replaced the Russia-Ukraine conflict as the short - term price - determining factor, but the market's sensitivity to geopolitics has decreased. The interest rate cut has been priced in earlier and has limited impact on oil price drivers. The long - term trading logic of crude oil still needs to focus on the evolution of the long - term supply - demand pattern. [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Oil prices are fluctuating between geopolitical uncertainty (US - Venezuela tensions) and weak fundamentals. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut was already priced in by the market, so its current impact on prices is neutral. The market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks has decreased, and the follow - up should focus on the development of the US - Venezuela situation. [1] 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: Short - term shock and relative stability. - Strategy Recommendations: - Unilateral: Trade within the range, paying attention to the potential pressure around $65/barrel and the potential support around $62/barrel for Brent oil. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [9] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The US has imposed sanctions on individuals, shipping companies, and tankers operating in Venezuela's oil sector. Russian crude oil deliveries to India and China have declined for three consecutive weeks, likely due to new US sanctions. [10] - Negative Information: US Gulf Coast gasoline inventories have risen for four consecutive weeks, and implied demand has declined. US crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories have changed, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) have decreased by 1800,000 barrels, a 0.4% decline. [11][12] 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - Pay attention to the development of the US - Venezuela situation, as it is currently the short - term price - determining factor, but the market's sensitivity to it has decreased. [13] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Analysis - Trend Analysis: International oil prices have remained stable overall, continuing the recent shock pattern and showing a four - month consecutive decline. - Domestic Market: The SC2601 contract of the SC main force closed at 437.6 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.55%. The trading volume of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 9,721 lots to 84,693 lots. - Foreign Market: The US oil main contract fell 0.12% to $57.53/barrel, a weekly decline of 4.24%; the Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.11% to $61.21/barrel, a weekly decline of 3.98%. The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased by 45,419 contracts to 1,868,023 contracts, and the net long position of managed funds decreased by 1,025 contracts to - 12,671 contracts. [16][18][21] 3.3.2 Internal - External Spread Tracking - Spread: As of December 12, the SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.28/barrel, the SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $3.94/barrel, the SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.97/barrel, and the Brent - WTI continuous 1 spread was $3.66/barrel. - Arbitrage: The theoretical price of SC M + 3 was 475.46 yuan/barrel, and the deviation from the market price increased. The theoretical on - shore profit of SC was - 29.05 yuan/barrel, and the loss narrowed compared with last week. The SC - Brent spread was weak, and the domestic crude oil was relatively weak under the background of OPEC+ production increase. [27][28] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of December 12, the Brent monthly spread (01 - 03) was $0.48/barrel, the WTI monthly spread (01 - 03) was $0.41/barrel, and the SC monthly spread (01 - 03) was - 5 yuan/barrel. [31] 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of December 12, the SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.27/barrel, and the Brent - WTI continuous 1 spread was $3.66/barrel. [43] 3.4.3 Downstream Crude Oil Valuation Tracking - The cracking spreads and refining profits in European, North American, Asia - Pacific, and Chinese markets have all shown different degrees of changes, with some declining and some showing small increases or decreases. [58][60] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - In October, global crude oil and related liquid production was 108.18 million barrels per day, a decrease of 310,000 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA has slightly increased its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. US, OPEC, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production also had corresponding changes in October and future forecasts. [93] 3.5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - Information on the seasonal trends of US refinery crude oil weekly feed and weekly operating rates, as well as China's major refinery operating rates and refining margins, is provided. [82][85] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - Seasonal trends of US commercial crude oil weekly inventories (excluding strategic reserves) and Cushing crude oil weekly inventories are presented. [87] 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - Seasonal trends of US and Russian crude oil export volumes and the types of ships used for export are shown. [89][91] 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - The EIA's forecasts for global, US, and OPEC countries' crude oil production in 2025 and 2026 are presented. [93]