美联储如期降息，铜再创历史新高：沪铜周报-20251215

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - micro resonance has led copper prices to reach a new historical high. It is recommended to hold long positions and set trailing stops. In the long - term, copper is still favored. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [89,500, 96,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [11,000, 12,000] US dollars/ton [6][107] - The Fed cut interest rates as expected in December, and Powell's statement was more dovish than expected. The domestic Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized counter - cyclical adjustment and loose fiscal policies [6][107] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Viewpoint Summary - The Fed's interest rate cut, domestic policy support, supply reduction in the copper smelting industry, and strong demand for green copper are the main factors driving the rise in copper prices. However, high copper prices suppress demand, and there are risks such as the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, copper mine disruptions, and insufficient demand [6][26][107] - It is recommended to hold long positions, set trailing stops, and industries should adjust their hedging strategies according to their own situations [6][107] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - US Economic Situation: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% - 3.75% in December, the sixth cut since the start of the interest - rate - cut cycle in September 2024 and the third in 2025. The decision - making process showed internal differences. US employment growth slowed, and the unemployment rate rose. Although inflation was still above the 2% target, Powell believed that inflation was close to the target after excluding tariff effects. The Fed announced a short - term Treasury purchase program starting on December 12, with an initial monthly scale of $40 billion [10] - Japanese Economic Situation: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% in its December 18 - 19 meeting with a probability of 85% - 90%. Japanese inflation has been high, and the yen has faced significant depreciation pressure [11] - Chinese Economic Situation: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized high - quality and sustainable development, with more proactive fiscal policies, moderately loose monetary policies, and measures to promote market competition and the healthy development of various industries [14] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side - Copper Concentrate Supply: Global copper concentrate supply has been tight in 2025 due to the over - expected production cuts and shutdowns of many large copper mines. China's imports of copper concentrate increased in October 2025. The CSPT group reached a consensus to reduce the production capacity of copper mines by more than 10% in 2026, resist unreasonable pricing, and prevent malicious competition [47][48][49] - Electrolytic Copper Production: In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased slightly, with a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The International Copper Study Group expects a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in the global refined copper market in 2026 [49] - Demand Side - Green Copper Demand: Renewable energy systems and new energy vehicles have a high demand for copper. The demand for copper in photovoltaic and new energy vehicle industries is growing [86] - Traditional Demand: The power industry maintains strong investment, while the home appliance industry is expected to have a front - high - and - back - low performance in 2025. High copper prices have a significant inhibitory effect on demand, and downstream enterprises are more cautious in purchasing during the off - season [82][86] 4. Summary and Outlook - In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate within a certain range. It is recommended to hold long positions and set trailing stops, and industries should adjust their hedging strategies according to their own situations [6][107] - In the long term, due to the strategic importance of copper in the Sino - US game, the tight supply of copper concentrates, and the explosive demand for green copper, copper is still a promising investment target [6][107]