弱现实逐步兑现，双焦承压下跌：中辉期货双焦周报-20251215

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal fundamentals will remain weak in the future. The coking coal index contract has fallen below the 1000 - yuan integer mark, and the market bearish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and look for opportunities to short on rallies [4]. - This week, black commodities fell across the board, with coking coal being the weakest in the sector. The second - round price cut of coke spot has been implemented, and the expectation of further price cuts is increasing [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coking Coal Market - Market Overview: Coking coal was the weakest in the black commodity sector this week, with the main contract down more than 10% week - on - week. Supply is at a low level, and inventory is seasonally accumulating. Steel mill maintenance has increased, suppressing raw material demand. The port clearance volume has risen, and the coking coal futures discount has deepened. The second - round price cut of coke spot has been implemented, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved [6]. - Cost and Basis: The report provides the coking coal warehouse receipt cost of different varieties and locations, as well as the basis and month - spread data of coking coal contracts [10][14]. - Supply: - Mine Production: The daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines was 189.79 million tons this week, a decrease of 0.63 million tons week - on - week; the daily average output of clean coal was 75 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons week - on - week [22]. - Coal Washery: The daily average output of sample coal washeries was 27.92 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate was 38.21%, an increase of 1.68% week - on - week [23]. - Imports: From January to October, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 4.8% year - on - year. In October, Mongolian coal imports decreased by 10.6% month - on - month and increased by 36.4% year - on - year [24][27]. - Auction Data: The coking coal auction挂牌量 increased by 28.24 million tons week - on - week, the成交 rate increased by 12.66 percentage points, and the non - transaction rate decreased by 12.66 percentage points [30]. - Inventory: There are data on coking coal total inventory and inventory distribution, but specific inventory values are not detailed in the summary requirements [31][33]. 3.2 Coke Market - Coking Profit: The coking profit in different regions has increased week - on - week, with national coking profit increasing from 30 to 44 [41]. - Basis: The report provides the basis and month - spread data of coke contracts [44]. - Supply and Demand: There are sections on coke supply and demand, but specific data details are not elaborated in the summary [48][50]. - Inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 20.81 million tons week - on - week to 903.8 million tons. The inventory of steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports showed different changes [61]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts and Futures Positions: There are sections on registered warehouse receipts and futures positions, but no specific summary of data is made here [62][64]. - TOP20 Seats Net Long Positions: There is information on the net long positions of the TOP20 seats in coking coal and coke since July 1, but no specific data summary is provided [66].