供需延续紧平衡，高位震荡为主：碳酸锂周报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight supply - demand balance and will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The main contract of lithium carbonate will maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend in the short term. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Overview - China's November CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points higher than last month, the highest since March 2024; PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. November exports in US dollars were 330.3 billion, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. Imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The M2 balance in November was 336.99 trillion yuan, an 8.0% year - on - year increase, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The stock of social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, an 8.5% year - on - year increase, 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.50% and 3.75% [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, remaining above 24,000 tons and reaching a new high this year. The average industry operating rate rebounded to over 52%. There are still uncertainties about the resumption of production of leading large - scale manufacturers. Attention should be paid to the arrival volume of overseas lithium mines. As of December 12, the output of lithium carbonate was 24,065 tons, a week - on - week increase of 170 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38% [3][11]. 3.3 Demand Side - From December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 297,000, a 32% year - on - year decrease and an 8% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 21.781 million, a 5% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 298,000, a 40% year - on - year decrease and an 18% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 27.063 million, a 10% year - on - year increase. The sales of new - energy vehicles at the beginning of December were lower than expected, while the orders for energy - storage projects at home and abroad were strong. Overall, the production schedule of downstream material manufacturers increased slightly month - on - month, still supporting the demand for lithium carbonate [3][5]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of mining ends increased. The African SC 5% was quoted at $900 per ton, a $30 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $1,215 per ton, a $55 per - ton increase compared to last week; the market price of lepidolite was 3,585 yuan per ton, the same as last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 80,088 yuan per ton, a 518 - yuan increase compared to last week, and the industry profit was 12,962 yuan per ton, a 303 - yuan decrease compared to last week [4]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of December 11, the total inventory was 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 19,161 tons, a 1,606 - ton decrease compared to last week [4]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The basis between futures and spot quotes remained stable this week. The discount range of the main contract of electric - grade lithium carbonate was concentrated between 1,500 and 2,500 yuan, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate maintained a large discount. Lithium salt factories mainly executed long - term contracts, and the shipment of spot orders was limited. In the short term, the main contract will maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend. The domestic output remains high and is expected to continue to grow with the arrival of overseas lithium mines. The overseas supply pressure has eased. Although the sales of new - energy vehicles at the beginning of December were lower than expected, the overall demand from downstream material manufacturers still supported the price [5]. 3.7 Price List of the Lithium - Battery Industry - As of December 12, the prices of some products increased, such as 6% spodumene CIF at $1,215 per ton, a 4.74% increase compared to last week; African SC 5% at $900 per ton, a 3.45% increase compared to last week; battery - grade lithium carbonate at 95,000 yuan per ton, a 3.26% increase compared to last week. Some product prices remained unchanged, such as lepidolite at 3,585 yuan per ton, and metal lithium at 610,000 yuan per ton [7]. 3.8 This Week's Market Review - As of December 12, LC2605 closed at 97,720 yuan per ton, a 6% increase compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,000 yuan per ton, a 3.3% increase compared to last week. The main contract increased significantly this week, approaching the previous high. According to the supply - demand balance sheet, lithium carbonate will continue the de - stocking trend in December, and the price will remain high [9]. 3.9 Production of Related Products - As of December 12, the production of lithium carbonate was 24,065 tons, a week - on - week increase of 170 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The production of lithium hydroxide was 6,350 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 36.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The production of lithium iron phosphate was 103,322 tons, a week - on - week increase of 800 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 90.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7% [11][13][16]. 3.10 Inventory of Related Products - As of December 11, the total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry was 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters continued to decline to a historical low. As of December 12, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 39,136 tons, a 134 - ton decrease compared to last week [34][38]. 3.11 Cost Side - As of December 12, the African SC 5% was quoted at $900 per ton, a $30 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $1,215 per ton, a $55 per - ton increase compared to last week; the market price of lepidolite was 3,585 yuan per ton, the same as last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 80,088 yuan per ton, a 518 - yuan increase compared to last week, and the industry profit was 12,962 yuan per ton, a 303 - yuan decrease compared to last week [51][54].