Report Title - Electrolytic Aluminum Futures Weekly Report [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to oscillate strongly, with potential high-level oscillations at the end of December. The mid- to long-term outlook remains bullish due to rigid supply, resilient demand with an optimistic outlook, historically low inventory levels, and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. However, the ample supply of bauxite and the off-season demand at the end of the year limit the upside potential. The strategy is to hold long positions and wait for price increases [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid-line Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The market is expected to oscillate strongly, with potential high-level oscillations at the end of December. The mid- to long-term outlook remains bullish, but the ample supply of bauxite and the off-season demand at the end of the year limit the upside potential [5]. - Trend Judgment Logic: Rigid supply, resilient demand with an optimistic outlook, historically low inventory levels, and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle support the bullish outlook [5]. - Mid-line Strategy Suggestion: Hold long positions and wait for price increases [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Short-term long positions were advised to exit and wait, while mid-term long positions were recommended to be held [8]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Hold sufficient spot inventory [8]. - Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises: Not provided Overall Viewpoint - Bauxite Market: Guinea Shunda Mining will resume shipments on December 13, and the supply from Guinea will increase, leading to a significant increase in domestic imported bauxite [9]. - Alumina Market: As of December 12, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96.1 million tons (96.5 million tons last week) and a capacity utilization rate of about 86.11%. In 2026, new alumina production capacity of about 14.4 million tons/year is expected to be put into operation, mainly in the first half of the year and concentrated in the southwest and northern coastal regions. The current high inventory of spot and the new production capacity in the first quarter of 2026 pose challenges to the alumina supply-demand balance. However, the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December regarding anti-involution and the implementation of the comprehensive management plan for red mud in Shandong have alleviated the market's pessimistic expectations to some extent [9]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In November, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.9165 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.6393 million tons, both slightly higher than the previous month. The molten aluminum ratio was about 73.38% (74% last month), a recent high. The domestic supply is under rigid constraints, and overseas electrolytic aluminum plants in Europe and the United States are severely restricted by carbon taxes and high electricity prices, while new projects in countries such as India and Indonesia are progressing slowly due to power supply issues. The global aluminum supply elasticity has almost disappeared [9]. - Import and Export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is currently about 1,700 yuan/ton, the same as last week. According to customs data, the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products in October was about 570,000 tons, showing a rebound from October and remaining at a relatively high level in recent years [9]. - Demand - Aluminum Profiles: The domestic aluminum profile operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 53% this week. The construction profile market remains sluggish, while orders for new energy vehicle profiles remain stable. Overall, the high aluminum price has a certain suppressing effect on downstream consumption, and the domestic aluminum profile operating rate is expected to continue to operate weakly in the short term [10]. - Demand - Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remained stable at 65%. The environmental protection restrictions in the Central Plains region are still severe, and it is expected that the operating conditions will not improve before New Year's Day. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 70.4%. The traditional consumption sectors are facing difficulties, and there is a lack of strong upward momentum in the short term [10]. - Demand - Aluminum Cables: The weekly operating rate of aluminum cables remained stable at 62.4%. The high aluminum price and the end-of-year inventory replenishment sentiment have suppressed the downstream operating enthusiasm, and the orders have not increased significantly. It is expected that the operating rate of aluminum cables will remain weak in December [10]. - Demand - Alloys: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 60% this week, ending the previous upward trend. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the operating rate is expected to decline further under the pressure of high aluminum prices. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 59.8% this week. With the lifting of environmental protection controls in Chongqing next week, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry is expected to gradually recover, but the recovery is expected to be limited due to the tight raw material supply and insufficient demand support [10]. - Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 583,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from last week and an increase of about 4% from the same period last year, at a relatively low level in the middle axis of inventory since 2023. Since August, the electrolytic aluminum inventory has gradually shifted from electrolytic aluminum plants to downstream inventories, and both the electrolytic aluminum and social visible inventories are currently at relatively low levels in recent years, while the export volume is at a relatively high level. The inventory of aluminum rods was 113,700 tons, a decrease of about 6% from last week and an increase of about 24% from the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly by about 2% from last week and was about 23% lower than the same period last year, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years [10]. - Alumina Profit: The average full cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,780 yuan/ton, with a theoretical spot profit of about 0 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about -300 yuan/ton for the futures main contract [11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Profit: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,000 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 4,900 yuan/ton (the same as last week). The profit is at a relatively high level [11]. - Market Expectation: In the first quarter of 2026, the aluminum ingot premium at Japan's MJP (major ports) is expected to rise from the low of 86 US dollars/ton in the fourth quarter of 2025. The core logic is the tightening of Asian supply due to the reconstruction of the global aluminum trade flow, combined with the catalysis of European carbon policies and structural demand support. The latest offers from leading smelters have already confirmed the upward trend, but the inventory replenishment constraints at the end of Japan's fiscal year may limit the rebound amplitude [11]. - Our View: The mid- to long-term outlook remains bullish, and attention should be paid to opportunities to build long positions on pullbacks [11]. - Key Concerns: 1. Political changes in Guinea. 2. The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on December 19 on the market's macro sentiment [11]. - Direction: The market is expected to oscillate strongly, with potential high-level oscillations at the end of the year [11]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum-related products, including bauxite, alumina, power coal, prebaked anodes, cryolite, domestic electrolytic aluminum production costs, Shanghai Aluminum main contract closing prices, electrolytic aluminum A00 in Foshan, aluminum alloy ingots ADC12 in Guangdong, aluminum rods 6063 in Foshan, and scrap aluminum in Guangzhou, are provided, along with their price changes compared to last week, last month, and the same period last year [12]. - The price of imported bauxite from Guinea continues to face pressure, and the prices of alumina and power coal have also changed. The price of alumina rebounded at the end of the week, mainly due to anti-involution and the expected reduction in supply from the comprehensive management plan for red mud in Shandong [12]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory changes of various aluminum-related products, including bauxite (imported) port inventory, China's alumina inventory, 7-city electrolytic aluminum social inventory, aluminum rod (6063) inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory (total), Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum remaining available storage capacity, LME aluminum inventory, and LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts, are provided, along with their inventory changes compared to last week, last month, and the same period last year [13][14]. - The domestic port bauxite inventory has been declining slightly since the end of November, and the inventory depletion is expected to continue in December. However, with the resumption of production at some mines in Guinea, the arrival pressure will be high next year, and the domestic bauxite supply is abundant. The alumina inventory has been accumulating since the end of May and is currently at a relatively high level. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and in-transit alumina has continued to accumulate this week, while the port inventory has remained relatively stable at a low level, and the inventory of alumina plants has decreased slightly since November. The domestic mainstream consumption area electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level in the middle axis of inventory since 2023, and both the electrolytic aluminum and social visible inventories are currently at relatively low levels in recent years, while the export volume is at a relatively high level. The LME aluminum inventory is also at a relatively low level in recent years [16][17]. Supply and Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8% this week, continuing the off-season trend [24]. - The primary aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production activities of aluminum cables at the end of the year are mainly focused on fulfilling basic demand. The short-term concentrated delivery of industrial materials such as photovoltaic frames, but the construction material market remains sluggish. The operating rate of aluminum foil remains stable. The operating rate of recycled aluminum has declined significantly due to environmental protection warnings in Chongqing and high costs eroding profits [24]. - Overall, the demand side of aluminum processing lacks strong growth points, and the operating rate is expected to remain low and oscillate in the short term [25]. Futures-Spot Structure - The Shanghai Aluminum futures market currently shows a contango structure, with the far-month prices higher than the near-month prices. Although the market declined on Friday, the structure and the market trend remain unchanged [28]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week was about -1,760 yuan/ton, compared to -1,730 yuan/ton before the holiday [36]. - The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, and its impact on electrolytic aluminum is neutral to weak [37]. Market Capital Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position of the LME aluminum variety is near the high level since April 2022. The latest fund net long position has increased slightly. Since November, the long camp has remained stable, while the short camp has actively built positions. Overall, the overseas capital side is still dominated by the long side, but the net long position is at a relatively low level in recent years, and there may be a large amount of profit-taking, which may lead to repeated market movements at high levels [39]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange Electrolytic Aluminum: Since mid-November, the net long position of the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety has shown a downward trend, with both the long and short sides increasing their positions. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background has rebounded slightly, but the camp is relatively divided. The funds with a background of mid- and downstream enterprises have slightly increased their net long positions. Overall, the main funds seem to be relatively cautious about the recent upward trend [42].
电解铝期货品种周报-20251215
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-12-15 00:46