万联晨会-20251215

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw collective gains last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.97%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20,920.64 billion yuan [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment led the gains, while retail, comprehensive, and building materials sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as smart grids, the Internet of Things, and mobile payments showed significant increases, whereas horse racing, newly listed tech stocks, and duty-free shop concepts experienced declines [1][7] Important News - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a notice to strengthen the collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption. The notice includes 11 specific measures aimed at enhancing financial support in key consumption areas, promoting personal consumption loans, and encouraging the issuance of consumption vouchers by merchants and platforms [2][8] Research Highlights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11, 2025, analyzed the current economic situation and systematically deployed economic work for 2026. The policy focuses on both demand and supply, acknowledging the coexistence of favorable and unfavorable external factors. The emphasis is on continuously expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, with expectations for a gradual adjustment in key industry capacities [9][10] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a fiscal deficit rate likely to stay around 4%. The focus will be on optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures and addressing local government financial difficulties [10][11] - Monetary policy will be adjusted flexibly in response to economic changes, aiming to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Structural tools are expected to be enhanced, with a focus on supporting small and medium-sized financial institutions [11][12] - The role of domestic demand is set to strengthen, with more policies anticipated to promote the construction of a large domestic market. This includes plans to increase urban and rural residents' income, which will help boost consumer confidence and sustainable consumption growth [11][12]